Here are some key takeaways from a fantasy football perspective from Week 6. Left out some of the obvious backfield situations.
Adrian Peterson can have a big workload if the Cardinals game script works in his favor.
The Cards got up early in this one, so there was no need for Andre Ellington. Carson Palmer only threw the ball 22 times, and Peterson had 2 goal line carries. This was the perfect game script for Peterson; The Cardinals will have difficulty replicating it. Peterson saw 48 snaps compared to Ellington’s 13, but Ellington can easily lead snap share in games in which the Cardinals have to come back or compete.
Doug Martin’s best is yet to come.
Martin led the backfield snaps with 37 to Sims’ 27, even in a negative game script. Had to do the same against the Patriots as well. If the Bucs defense can actually hold a team close, Martin can have a big workload. He’s looked good, and has scored TDs in both games since suspension.
The Broncos backfield is more of a timeshare than we think.
Can’t figure this one out. CJ Anderson is a very good running back when he’s healthy. Jamaal Charles has also looked good this year, but Devontae Booker is healthy now and was added to the mix against the Giants on Sunday night. Anderson handled most of the snaps with 38, but Booker and Charles had 23 and 20, respectively.
Orleans Darkwa is the favorite to lead the Giants backfield, and it’s possible that he’s the workhorse.
Darkwa handled most of the Giants snaps Sunday night with 27. Gallman and Vereen also had 27 combined. Darkwa is the back to own, and has performed well so far this season; he’s averaged 5.69 yards per carry, and had more rush yards against Denver Sunday night than Melvin Gordon, Zeke, LeSean McCoy, and Marshawn Lynch has against them combined.
It was the Mark Ingram show, but Alvin Kamara still has a role.
Kamara played 31 snaps to Ingram’s 47, and in positive game scripts we should expect this. However, if the Saints are losing or they are in a very competitive game, expect Kamara to play more of a role. He still performed very well, rushing for 75 yards on 10 carries and catching 4 passes.
Theo Riddick is still the preferred passing option in Detroit, and that limits Ameer Abdullah’s ceiling.
The Lions were down almost the entire game, so Theo Riddick almost played the same number of snaps Abdullah did – 35 to 37, respectively. Even in a good matchup for Abdullah, the Lions need to be heavily favored in order for him to have a big workload.
Even with Collins leading in touches, Buck Allen is the back to own in Baltimore. But the backfield is hard to trust.
Collins out-touched Allen 15-13, but Allen was on the field way more. Allen out-snapped Collins 46 to 22. This is a confusing backfield, and the guy who actually gets the work has been murky for a long time. Still, I’m comfortable rolling Allen out in a PPR format in my flex.
Christian McCaffrey becoming a must-start PPR asset.
McCaffrey now has 37 receptions on 50 targets, and looks great in the passing game. Doesn’t look so great in the running game, though. Because of that, Jonathan Stewart will be relevant as long as the Panthers aren’t in full-blown catchup mode. That was the case this week, so McCaffrey out-snapped Stewart 61 to 27. Stewart is becoming unstartable, but we can’t deny his carry numbers prior to this week. Stay patient with the carry totals, don’t run away from the lack of points. Those carries will become valuable in the second half of the season.
Aaron Jones in driver seat while Ty Montgomery heals.
Jones out-snapped Montgomery 43-20, but he didn’t touch the ball a lot more than Montgomery did. Either way, Aaron Rodgers might be done for the year, and both of these guys take a hit in value. If this becomes a run first team, Jones has the edge. If they remain pass first, Montgomery has the edge. The team will probably change philosophy, as Mike McCarthy has alluded to, to tailor to their new QB. If Montgomery continues to have limited snaps, Jones has a chance to win the job. If he doesn’t perform quite as well as he did against Dallas for the next few weeks, expect Montgomery to take over again once he’s fully healthy.
Jets not ready to feature Elijah McGuire.
Forte made the quickest return from a turf toe injury of all time, leading the Jets backfield in snaps with 43 to McGuire’s 25. Travaris Cadet even got some snaps behind McGuire. I’m cool with dropping McGuire at this point, with Powell probably coming back soon.
Dion Lewis might be making his comeback.
Lewis and James White each had 29 snaps in this game, with Gillislee sent to Belichick’s doghouse after an early fumble. Dion Lewis did start the game, but we can’t read too much into that. Lewis is looking good on his touches, and is getting goal line looks. I want him on my roster before he blows up; there’s always that possibility. If this backfield goes back to the White and Gillislee show, that’s fine too, but I’m taking the chance on Lewis.
Jay Ajayi is going to get work no matter what.
Ajayi had 25+ carries in 3 of his 5 games, and that seems to be the game plan on offense for the Dolphins, as long as they aren’t in full blown comeback mode. Even down 17-0 in this game against the Falcons, Ajayi still saw work, seeing 48 snaps. Williams was next in line with only 18. Ajayi is pretty safe, and I’ll have in my lineups most weeks.
Cleveland will never have a positive game script for Isaiah Crowell.
Crowell and Duke Johnson shared snaps evenly at 31 a piece. Crowell did well from a yard per carry perspective, but couldn’t get enough work in a game where the Browns were trailing the entire time. This will happen every week, so Duke is a safer bet on a per week basis than Crowell. If you drop Crowell, just know that someone in your league might start him. That’s probably good for you.
Jordan Howard is the Bears’ offense.
Howard had a career high 36 rushing attempts in this game, and was the reason the Bears were in the game and won the game. The Bears are riding Jordan Howard, and as long as they don’t fall into a negative game script too early, Howard will be their workhorse. He played 54 snaps to Tarik Cohen’s 26. He’s an every-week must start. Cohen is a hold since he’s their preferred passing down back and is very explosive, but it’ll be hard to predict when the Bears offense will be rallying from a large deficit.
Lamar Miller’s job isn’t in danger.
The touch totals were very similar between Miller and Foreman, but Miller played on 44 snaps compared to Foreman’s 23. Most of Foreman’s carries came in the second half with the game in control. The knock on Miller right now is that he’s not getting close-out and garbage time work, which is valuable in fantasy football.
Redskins don’t trust in Samaje Perine, and really trust Chris Thompson.
Rob Kelley was out for this game, so Perine was in line to take that early down role. However, Chris Thompson was the one starting the game and had 16 carries in this one, along with his typical receiving performance – 4 catches for 105 yards. Perine saw some work, but Thompson heavily outsnapped him 45-25. Perine isn’t a must-play if Kelley is out, and isn’t even necessarily the handcuff, at least not right now.
Carlos Hyde is still the guy, but could be a smokescreen.
I’m still holding Matt Breida, but Carlos Hyde was the guy now that he’s off the injury report. He played 55 snaps to Breida’s 18, and had 2 goal line TDs save the day for fantasy owners. The rumors are swirling that the 49ers are willing to trade him, so that’s always a possibility. Hold Breida though, because he could be a 3-down asset if Hyde were to get traded or get hurt.