Allen Robinson is the clear #1 WR in Chicago, as I can’t imagine Kevin White coming back from yet another injury and taking too many targets away from Robinson’s side. Trey Burton should get his as well, but the offense should be able to sustain Robinson at a 25%+ target share. The quality of those targets are still questionable, but if Robinson can have a 1400-yard season with Blake Bortles, Robinson might be able to overcome some of Mitch Trubisky’s shortcomings.
Matt Nagy’s offensive football mind has seen a lot of praise, as being one of the few people (maybe only?) Andy Reid has allowed to call plays in place of himself. He doesn’t have much experience calling plays or even being an offensive coordinator, but he was a big part of the Chiefs averaging almost 29 points per game during his five game stretch as playcaller. Nagy is a Andy Reid protege, so we look forward to some upside when it comes to fantasy producers in what could be a better than average offense.
Here’s what Trubisky had to work with in 2017: Kendall Wright and Dontrelle Inman. No one else topped 40 targets in 12 games from Trubisky outside of Tarik Cohen. With Wright’s 73 targets and Inman’s 39 targets out of town, there is an obvious void for pass-catchers. I do expect Trubisky’s attempts to go up; there were 3 games out of his 12 where he had less than 17 attempts. If we extrapolate his 2017 attempts to 16 games, he has 440 attempts, which only comes to 27.5 per game and is way below what the team with the fewest attempts had last season. Which team was that? The Bears, with 29.6 attempts/game. I expect that to move back to the mean, at about 34 attempts per game. If Robinson can get a 25% target share, that’s about 136 targets, which would have been in the top 12 last season.
I think there is tremendous upside with Robinson, dependent on where he’s being drafted. The end of the 4th, early 5th is where I would love to take him, but depending on if I already have a legit WR1 on my roster, I might want to go a bit safer and choose someone who is a more dependable weekly commodity without as much upside. There’s no doubt there’s a risk with Robinson, as he hasn’t produced to the level we expect in two seasons, but as the #1 WR on a potential up-and-coming offense, he might be worth that risk.
Where would you feel comfortable taking Robinson? How risky do you think his ADP will be? Let me know!