His end-of-third round ADP can rise once (if) we all have more confidence in Luck as the offseason progresses, but for now you can get him at a discount. Hilton can be considered an inconsistent WR, but that was only when Luck had a guy like Donte Moncrief on the other side of the field. When Luck was healthy in 2016, Moncrief was hurt from Week 2 until Week 7. During that time, Hilton averaged 6 receptions on 11 targets and 102 yards per game. Moncrief missed Week 17 as well, and Hilton went on to catch 6 of his 12 targets for 95 yards. Those target numbers are serious for playmaker like Hilton.
Without Moncrief in the lineup, who is the next WR who will take serious targets away from Hilton? Ryan Grant and a RB like Nyheim Hines can get theirs, and the tight ends will get theirs as they always do – those targets won’t be taken away from Hilton’s share. He’s the clear favorite of Luck’s and should be hyper-targeted this season. If you’re worried about Luck’s arm, TY has turned into more of a possession receiver in the absence of another true threat, but obviously still has the ability over the top – really makes him dangerous as he isn’t a one trick guy like DeSean Jackson or Will Fuller.
Do you think his ADP of the end of the third is fair once we find out Luck is making all the throws? Let me know what you think of Hilton this season!