Corey Davis has the upside to be a top 5 WR.. at some point. Will it be this year? Maybe. We don’t have to spend a ton to find out ourselves this year, so the risk isn’t too high to draft him at his 6th-7th round ADP. Still, I’m a guy who likes to draft productive, startable assets who have predictable workloads and target share at that point of my draft. Davis isn’t a guy that fits that description right now.
He’s a prototypical #1 WR, but the targets will need to shift away from guys like Richard Matthews and Delanie Walker, who are Mariota’s current favorites, and towards Davis. Easier said than done to shift Mariota’s comfort zone, but it can obviously happen.. it just might take another season (or maybe half a season) for that to be established.
The Titans were 28th in pass attempts and 27th in passing TDs last season, and while that should go up shifting from Mularkey to LaFleur, the targets can be spread about a bit as they were throughout Mariota’s career. The argument to be made is that Mariota never had a legit #1 WR, and I would agree with that sentiment. Still, no one has had a really high target share from Mariota throughout his few years in the league; Matthews had the highest in 2016 with 21%, but it’s going to be hard for Mariota to shake off his love for Delanie Walker, who’s had 22% target share throughout Mariota’s three-year career. Dion Lewis is a threat to garner 80 targets this season as well, so the uptick in passing attempts might not all be for Davis.
QUESTION: I want to know if you’re considering Corey Davis. Do you think he’ll break out this year and be a consistent fantasy starter in what should be an innovative offense by Matt Lafleur, or will the targets be spread thin and not allow Davis to give us what we’re looking for on a weekly basis? Is he a safe enough pick in the 7th round? Should we wait a year to see how it shakes out? Let me know what you think in the comments below!