Over the past 12 seasons, Saints RBs have been in the top 2 in total PPR points 10 times.
☝️ This is why Kamara was able to do what he did. His talent meshed perfectly with what the Saints like to do on offense. The role always existed. I know it’s super tempting to want to find the next Kamara, but unless he’s taking Kamara’s role on the Saints, he ain’t the next Kamara. If Kamara landed on another team, we will not be talking about taking him in the first round, and we don’t know that he would have even been utilized to take advantage of his strengths during his rookie season.
Because of the history of this Saints offense, I can see why Kamara is being taken in the first round in PPR leagues. I personally will not be drafting Kamara, as I like to grab RBs who are true workhorses in the first round. Christian McCaffrey and Kamara should see a similar workload next season on a per-game basis once Ingram is back, but one is going a full round past the other in PPR drafts. I really can’t figure out why Kamara would be drafted in the middle of the first in non-PPR leagues, since his only chance of consistently getting 15+ carries per game and goal line opportunities is during the first four games of the season, where even then he probably won’t be getting true workhorse-like touches.
I really drifted from the point in the last paragraph. There are plenty of guys who have been touted as the next Alvin Kamara – Nyheim Hines, Sony Michel, and Kerryon Johnson to name a few. Each of these guys are in a timeshare in their respective backfields, and their teams have a specific history as to how their RBs have been used and produced. Kamara’s hyper production in the Saints offense made sense – their history backs it up. Can these other guys have a historically efficient year like Kamara in a shared backfield? Possibly, but don’t have your hopes Kamara high, unless they are getting the lion’s share of the touches in their backfield. Credit to Graham Barfield on Twitter for the stats!
Are you okay with drafting Kamara in the first even though he won’t be the workhorse? Are there any rookie backs who you think can actually grab 80+ balls this season to make them RB1 or RB2 material in PPR leagues? Let me know!