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Travis Kelce is a mainstay and very important cog in the Chiefs’ offense. The offensive plans will involve trying to feed the beast, as he’s one of the top tight ends in the game. We want the success to continue, and he’s currently being drafted higher than he was in 2017 drafts… but with a very important change – the starting QB. Kelce led the team in targets over the last two seasons, with a whopping 24.7% target share last season – first in the league. He had a 20% target share in the red zone, which was 3rd in the league. Can we expect Patrick Mahomes to continue that type of share with the addition of Sammy Watkins, along with having other weapons like Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt?
We know Mahomes like to go deep, so we can see Hill and Watkins get a bump because of his style of play. The offense under the Andy Reid and Alex Smith reign has been historically conservative, with Hill being able to open things up for Smith last season to give him confidence in chucking up some deep balls. The more conservative they stay, the better it is for Kelce to continue to rack up short to intermediate catches. Mahomes has a gunslinger mentality, so I can see them allowing him to take advantage of his skillset, even in Year 1 as a starting QB. We also have to remember that Smith wasn’t a guy who distributed the ball too much. He had his guys, and that’s where the ball would go.

Kelce is a stud – and his talent will more than likely will prove me wrong and say that he was worth that 3rd round pick. But I’m a guy who likes to reduce risk in the first few rounds of my draft and get high upside guys a bit later on. He is being drafted earlier than last season, but these factors that can affect his production. Remember, drafting Kelce here means that he’s going to finish as a Top-2 tight end. I want predictability at that price tag, so I might be watching Kelce go off on another team this season… but I think he’s a bit riskier than his ADP suggests. I’d honestly rather grab a WR in round 3 and try to grab Ertz in the beginning of the 4th if possible. Most likely I’ll be punting the position and grabbing a late round guy or streaming!

How do you feel about Kelce this season? Are you unfazed by the change at QB? Will Mahomes come in and keep his value afloat as a top-2 tight end? Let me know!