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Rough notes from Week 10.

  • Guys we can’t trust – nothing more than DFS dart throws at this point, or fliers in season long
    • DJ Moore – 4 players with 5+ targets, one with 3, one with 4. Targets are very distributed
    • Tre’Quan Smith – see below
  • David Johnson’s usage is getting better. 28 touches – 7 receptions on 9 targets for 85 yards very encouraging. Clearly an improvement in passing game. Great usage – Leftwich clearly making changes.
  • Ricky Seals-Jones caught 5 of 9 targets, Larry Fitz caught 6 of 10 targets. Passing game definitely changed. Running a lot more routes under new coaching staff.
  • Reminder for myself and everyone else is to focus on volume over potential matchup:
    • Tyreek Hill vs Patrick Peterson
    • Corey Davis vs Stephon Gillmore
  • Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley are going to flip flop as the #2 WR for Matt Ryan. This week it was Sanu out-targeting Ridley 8-5
  • Tevin Coleman’s volume as the 1a isn’t consistent enough to be a must-start every week. Only had 14 touches in this game. The 18-touch game he saw last week was ideal, but not what we’ve been seeing most weeks. Ito Smith had 8 touches total.
  • The Browns weren’t in a negative game script surprisingly, but Duke Johnson still caught 4 passes on 4 targets while only playing on 32% of snaps. Chubb catching his 3 targets was also very encouraging.
  • Leonard Fournette was wildly inefficient with his 24 carries, but 29 touches is serious volume that we should be encouraged with going forward. Makes him a must-start going forward. He saw 52% of snaps with Yeldon seeing 36% and Hyde 12%. Hyde is nothing more than an early down handcuff to Fournette, and he isn’t even that if Yeldon will see early down work. He can probably be dropped.
  • Marlon Mack was shut down by the Jags. Colts abandoned the run game. He out-carried other RBs 12-4.
  • Eric Ebron is a TD machine in this offense, regardless of the fact that he hardly plays any snaps. He comes in for red zone situations, and that’s exactly who Luck is targeting in that area. Doyle is still the PPR play, but Ebron is the standard play. I don’t see how you can ignore his production, even without volume of snaps or targets.
  • Jordan Howard’s lack of consistent volume caught up to him. He’s completely TD dependent, but has a good chance of scoring most weeks because of the defense putting them in good positions and the offense’s ability to move the ball. He would’ve scored this week if it wasn’t for a pre-snap penalty on the goal line. Cohen also vultured a TD, but it wasn’t a goal line TD.
  • Kenny Golladay finally had a resurgence, catching 6 of 13 targets for 78 yards and a TD. Marvin Jones’ knee is okay, but he’s currently day to day and is in danger of missing next week. James Bradberry would be a tough matchup for Golladay, but he’s going to get volume if Marvin misses.
  • Theo Riddick caught 6 of 7 passes this week, and 7 of 8 last week, which gives him a bit of a floor in PPR after Golden Tate’s departure.
  • Kerryon Johnson got a goal line carry after the Lions failed to convert with LeGarrette Blount twice. Blount took 6 carries for 4 yards. We can only hope and pray that Blount stops seeing the field. KJ ended up seeing 20 touches, which is very healthy and encouraging moving forward. He wasn’t efficient on the ground but had 6 receptions for 38 yards and a TD. He played on 71% of snaps even while losing. Riddick saw 58% of snaps, so they were on the field at the same time for a bunch of snaps.
  • Dion Lewis had another 20+ touch game, dude is clearly the guy in that backfield. Henry had 11 carries and 2 TDs, but I still don’t trust him moving forward. The Titans were up all game long; they couldn’t give Lewis even more work. I wouldn’t fall into this trap of starting Henry moving forward.
  • Josh Gordon had second straight 10+ target game with 12 targets. They put Adoree Jackson on him, which was the right move instead of keeping him on his side which they usually do. If they didn’t, Gordon would’ve blew up against Malcolm Butler.
  • Sony Michel played on only 26% of snaps – partly because he was being eased back in and because the Patriots were actually down all game.
  • Chris Godwin ran only 22 routes (compared to 42 for Mike Evans) and caught all 7 of his targets for 103 yards. He’s a stud. At whichever point he doesn’t have share the outside with DeSean Jackson and gets a full time role, look out.
  • I’m not overreacting to Jacquizz Rodgers’ 8 catches for 102 yards. Seemed gameplan specific, and neither Fitzpatrick or Winston isn’t one to dump it down consistently. Fitz will start next week.
  • New Orleans is a well-oiled machine at this point. That machine does not include Tre’Quan Smith right now. Can’t depend on him. The lack of targets wasn’t a mistake. He wasn’t targeted at all in Week 10, even while seeing the field 68% of the time in an amazing matchup – a healthy number. 0 targets is not a healthy number. This upcoming week is an amazing matchup, but I’m not sure that he’s anything more than a long-shot dart throw.
  • Mark Ingram had a resurgence with the same amount of volume he’s been getting. He was a desperate play, but on a good offense while still involved in the passing game, he can see a big game. We saw it last year a lot more frequently.
  • Cincinnati sucks without AJ Green. John Ross had 6 targets, which is encouraging. He should be picked up this week.
  • Aaron Jones saw 74% of snaps and 18 touches this week, which is an amazing number. If this continues, he can be a league winner. Jamaal Williams only had 3 touches.
  • Danny Amendola has seen consistent volume from Brock Osweiler after another good game – 7 for 72 on 10 targets. He should be owned in PPR leagues for a safe floor. DeVante Parker saw 11 targets, but messed up his shoulder. More targets for Dola.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling caught 6 of 7 targets operating primarily out of the slot since Cobb was out. Wouldn’t expect this type of volume when he’s on the outside when Cobb is back. Either way, MVS is a play every week for the potential of a big game.
  • Of course! Rashaad Penny out-carried Mike Davis 12-11. Davis caught 4 balls though, so 15 touches came through for you, especially since he found the end zone. Davis did out-snap Penny 57% to 40%. Who knows when Carson will be back, but Penny looked good… and should be picked up… I guess? I wouldn’t expect too much with this backfield unless Carson is healthy. He’s the only guy I can really trust to get a full workload at this point. And I’m not even sure how much I trust that. Carroll says Carson should be ready for Thursday’s game.
  • Brandin Cooks had an amazing matchup on that left side of the field and took advantage, catching 10 of 12 for 100 yards.
  • Unfortunately, Cooper Kupp went down yet again this season but this time he has torn his ACL. This guy lives and breathes football, so it really sucks that it had to happen to him. Wishing for a full recovery. Josh Reynolds should be picked up since the Rams play in 3-WR sets more than any other team, but temper your expectations. Expect Robert Woods to take over the slot role and Reynolds taking Woods’ role on the outside.
  • Amari Cooper is seeing volume and looks good. Too bad Dak can’t take full advantage. Either way he caught 6 of 10 for 75. Can’t ask for more on a new team with a terrible offensive strategy.
  • Josh Adams has the Jay Ajayi role on the Eagles. Not sure that will turn into a ton of volume. The Eagles lost Ronald Darby for the year with an ACL tear. They will struggle heavily stopping WRs on the perimeter. Either way, Adams should be picked up in standard leagues. This is still a 3-man backfield, and they split snaps pretty evenly three ways.
  • Zach Ertz is having a record breaking season. 14 catches on 16 targets. Wow. Golden Tate only played on 29% of snaps. They’re easing him in. Will be a tough start next week, but the Eagles are playing the Saints, so you might have to think about it.