It might take a season or two for Jameis Winston to improve his knack for turning the ball over, but Bruce Arians has somewhat of a track record in helping correct this exact issue with both Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer. In 2006, Ben threw 18 TDs and 23 INTs, and once Arians took over as OC in 2007, Ben threw 32 TDs and 11 INTs, which was his best year in terms of QB Rating and QBR. Carson Palmer had a rough start in Arians’ first year as his coordinator in 2013, but ended the season averaging 300+ yards with 12 TDs and 7 INT over his last 7 games. He then went on to throw 81 TDs and 35 INTs over the next four years with Arians.
The Bucs had a great offense in 2018, and while Winston’s TD:INT ratio wasn’t horrible, but the timing of interceptions were terrible. Winston threw 11 INTs in his first five games this season, but he relatively cleaned up his game in the final six, throwing only 3 INTs to his 11 TDs. That’s something Arians can work with, especially when we talk about his downfield tendencies.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Winston was one of the most aggressive passers in terms of trying to fit balls into tight windows. He’s also right at the top when it comes to intended air yards, which means he’s slinging it downfield. The latter might stay the same with Arians, but the former will likely be what needs to change. There’s no doubt that this offense has a ton of weapons in the pass game between Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, OJ Howard, and Adam Humphries, so all of these guys can be fantasy relevant on this new offense. DeSean Jackson reportedly wasn’t interested in staying on the Bucs, and can be cut with zero dead money, but that can change with this hire. He’s due to earn $10M this year if he stays on. Winston has never really found his connection with D-Jax, and I’m not sure having Arians on board would change that.
Either way, Winston has always been fine for fantasy, and he would be a target of mine if drafting a QB late… and since I always draft a QB late, he’ll be one of the few I’d be aiming for.