With Mike Davis most likely leaving via free agency, there should be enough volume for Chris Carson, even with Rashaad Penny gaining a bigger role. The real question is how big that role will be, and if the answer to that question was more clear, Carson’s ADP might be a bit higher than his current 4th round ADP. Last year, Carson finished as the RB18 in PPR, and the RB13 in standard in terms of fantasy points per game. He’s being drafted as the RB23 and RB22 right now, respectively; do you think that’s appropriate because of the lack of clarity in that backfield? Mike Davis will vacate 112 carries, so how much of a workload should we really expect Penny to get? With Penny himself getting 85 carries last year, he can add in Davis’ full workload and still leave enough for Carson to provide a similar impact as the 1a, especially in Brian Schottenheimer’s run-first offense (2nd in rushing attempts only to Baltimore).
Of all RBs with at least 240 attempts in 2018, PFF graded Carson 2nd under Barkley when it comes to RBs with at least 240 attempts in 2018, and he also had the 2nd highest elusive rating behind Barkley. Over the last four games of the season, Carson averaged 22.5 carries for 111.8 yards and 1.3 TDs; it’ll be tough to justify keeping him off the field, especially on early downs.
Are you afraid that Penny will gain too much of a role that Carson wouldn’t be able to replicate his 2018 season? Or are you just fine taking him at his current ADP of the 4th round? 👇👇