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AJ Green was being drafted at the end of the 1st in 2017, the end of the 2nd in 2018, and now his ADP is at the end of the 3rd. The only reason? Injuries. We do know his upside, and wouldn’t be surprised if he finished as a top-5 WR… he’s finished as a top-5 WR twice, and was top-10 4 times.

Green can actually be drafted as your WR2, which is probably the first time you’re able to draft him as one. If he doesn’t get hurt in that scenario, you can potentially have 2 WR1s and 1 RB1 in the first three rounds. Would I draft him as my WR1? That might be tough; if he goes down, I have a real uphill battle.

However, injuries driving down his price is the best thing that can happen to his value if you’re the one who can get him in the 3rd and he doesn’t get injured. It’s not about predicting if he’s going to get hurt, and correlating his past injuries with future ones, it’s about playing the odds and for the upside that he doesn’t get hurt. You’re going for the upside, and taking a shot that your first three picks hit big time and carry you to a championship.

Before he got hurt last year, he was the WR6 in standard and WR8 in PPR, averaging 10 targets per game. He only appeared in 9 games last year, but did play a full 16 the year prior, admittedly banged up. The year before that was 10 games played, so there’s no doubt there are injury concerns. Over his last 35 games played, though, he averaged almost 80 yards and had a 50% chance of scoring with 18 TDs.

He’ll be 31 by the time the season starts, and he’s probably reaching the twilight of his career, but judging by how he performed last year prior to the injury, he is still performing at an elite level. Yards per route run is a great stat that correlates well to the best in the league, and Green was 8th behind Julio, Michael Thomas, Tyreek, TY Hilton, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and Mike Evans. The Bengals know what they have in AJ, and they still want to extend him. With Tyler Boyd taking some pressure off of him, we could be looking at a late 3rd round price tag that is worth a late 1st if he hits.

Would you take the risk if he’s your WR2? Or would you rather grab Tyler Boyd in the early 6th?