- George Kittle 2.83
- Travis Kelce 2.34
- OJ Howard 2.26
- Zach Ertz 2.04
- Mark Andrews 2.01
- Evan Engram 1.83
- Jared Cook 1.83
According to PFF, outside of targets and total fantasy production, yards per route run has the best correlation to fantasy points for receivers for the following season. It’s a number we can take a look at it before a receiver gets volume to identify who has potential to perform if given volume.
When wondering whether George Kittle belongs in the upper echelon of the best TEs with Kelce and Ertz, this is a good indication he’s there to stay, presuming he remains injury free.
Bruce Arians hasn’t had a history of using TEs, but he also hasn’t had any good ones, let alone someone like OJ Howard. Jameis Winston’s comfort zone has always been the TE, but Arian’s lack of TE usage in the past might help in terms of not spreading the share between Howard and Brate. Howard has the potential to be an elite weapon, so Arians might actually be a good thing when it comes to keeping TE target distribution to one player. He obviously has to stay injury free as well.
Where are the Ravens going to to throw the ball? No Crabtree, no John Brown. Mark Andrews quietly put up 552 yards last year on a ridiculous 16.2 yards per reception; only OJ Howard had more. The yards/route run number actually went up once Lamar Jackson took over. He’s a guy you draft with your last pick just in case he becomes THE guy Jackson throws to, because his rookie year has shown signs of elite potential. There is competition at TE for the Ravens, so it’s a matter of making a bet for upside.
Mark Andrews and Chris Herndon (came in 10th) are the only two TEs in the top-10 in yards per route run in 2018 who is going after the 8th round, and will probability even go undrafted, while a healthy target share can await them in 2019.
If you’re drafting one of the big three, who are you drafting? Kelce at the 1-2 turn, Ertz at the 2-3 turn, or Kittle in the mid-third? If not, who are the two or three guys you are aiming for? What round do you think you’ll end up drafting your tight end?