Jack Doyle was relatively healthy for five games last year. In those five games, his snap count compared to Ebron’s are as follows:
Game 1: Doyle: 94% Ebron: 45%
Game 2: Doyle: 97% Ebron: 26%
Game 8: Doyle: 73% Ebron: 22%
Game 9: Doyle: 87% Ebron: 38%
Game 10: Doyle: 82% Ebron: 40%
In those five games, Doyle ran 139 routes compared to Ebron’s 67.
Ebron brought huge value in the red zone, but in those five games, Doyle out-targeted Ebron in the red zone 5-3, although Ebron efficiently did bring in a TD in each of those games. However, TDs scored aren’t a good indicator for future TD success; opportunity is the ultimate factor in that determination.
Another thing to note is that once Doyle came back to the lineup in Week 8, Ebron resumed a low snap percentage after playing on 70%+ of snaps. They wanted Doyle back, and they wanted him in the role he was playing, regardless of what Ebron was while Doyle was out.
We can chase the TDs, but there’s too much risk in the 5th round. I’m not even saying we have to grab Doyle that late, but I would think the 13th round is ridiculous value, and would assume that price would normalize a bit.
If we want to project Ebron to having a bigger role in 2019 even with Doyle back, that can happen… I’m just not willing to find out for a 5th round pick.