Most of these players carry some risk, which is why their ADP doesn’t match their ceiling, but if you hit on a couple of higher-risk/high ceiling guys during your draft, it can be the differentiator in building a championship team.
OBJ (2.03) – He’s being drafted outside the top-5, but his ceiling is the overall WR1. Baker Mayfield’s second year combined with pass-happy OC Todd Monken and Freddie Kitchens can lead to fireworks. The risk here is that the ball is spread out more, and Mayfield/OBJ have some growing pains; we don’t have evidence of it working yet. Still, not a big risk at his ADP.
Dalvin Cook (2.05) – Injury plagued years definitely hurt his perception, but looking closely at the specific injuries show that he doesn’t have much injury risk moving forward. A full healthy offseason under his belt should work wonders for the soft tissue concerns. A potential every-down workhorse in a run-heavy offense can lead to him being a top-5 back. He’s being drafted as the RB11.
Antonio Brown (2.07) – QB downgrade, and goes to an offense that won’t pass as much as Pittsburgh did and is getting older. Regardless, he can still be argued as the best WR in the NFL. Without too many options behind him, he still has a shot at an elite total target number. Gruden has had a good history with his WR1s. Not too much of a risk at his price.
Leonard Fournette (3.02) – With TJ Yeldon leaving in free agency, it’s looking like Fournette is going to the Jags’ every-down back in 2019. He carries a lot of risk at his ADP mostly because of injury history, but his upside might warrant picking him here every single time. He has top-5 upside at the RB position, especially if they play him on third and passing downs.
AJ Green (3.06) – Injury history plays into Green’s ADP, but there’s not a doubt that he’s a WR1 when he’s healthy. Since 2011 with Andy Dalton, he’s averaged 17.39 PPR points on almost 10 targets per game. In the 8 games he played with Dalton last year, he averaged 18.71 PPR points per game. Recency bias and disappointing timing for those injuries will leave most people overlooking Green, but that means you have a shot at an upside WR1 late in the 3rd round.