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Todd Gurley is currently being taken anywhere from the middle of the first to the end of the 2nd in mock drafts. If Gurley is a full go for training camp and is ready for Week 1, what’s the highest price you would pay? Or are you avoiding him completely?
Drafting Darrell Henderson and/or Malcolm Brown is an option to give you a bit of a security blanket, but it’s likely neither are 3-down handcuffs, as this will likely turn into a shared backfield. Henderson’s PPR ADP is a bit high at the end of the 6th, and I would only pick him as a handcuff or to add some upside to my roster. If you need a more surefire option at RB, a guy like Latavius Murray is someone I would consider over Henderson at that ADP. Keep in mind that if Gurley’s touch count gets reduced to 15-18, Henderson can have PPR relevance off the bat with upside.
With Sean McVay running 11-personnel as his base package, along with the creativity he brings, there is a lot of room for efficiency because of close-to-zero stacked boxes. Investing in this offense, and this backfield, is a better bet than most.
That being said, Gurley getting 18 touches per game can still produce RB1 numbers, and you’ll hope that he doesn’t break down. That’s the hope you have with any RB, and to predict he’ll break down because of the arthritis after his decreased workload might be overvaluing the significance of the injury.
There are definitely several RBs worth taking over Gurley for safety, so it’s a matter of how much risk you’re willing to take. But keep in mind that avoiding risk completely, especially when a good portion of that risk is built into price, is something worth reconsidering.