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55 of Todd Gurley’s 59 receptions came on early downs. There were 39 RBs who had more receptions on third downs than Todd Gurley in 2018.
With very valid concerns about his role reducing in 2019, snaps being taken away might not be the worst thing.
If he played only 65% of snaps from his average of 85% last year, a 20% decrease in his 372.1 PPR fantasy points (RB3) would’ve been reduced to 298.68 – equates to the overall RB6.
If he played only 50% of snaps, a 35% dip in production would’ve totaled 241.87 PPR fantasy points – finishing as the RB11.
We should probably count for some sort of regression, but if Gurley can manage 18 touches instead of the 25 he was averaging through the first 8 weeks of the season, he has a good shot at maintaining a somewhat efficient pace; the Rams offense is potent, and diverse 11-personnel base package groupings lead to almost no stacked boxes.
If Darrell Henderson were to truly play a “Chris Thompson” type role, as senior NFL reporter Charles Robinson believes can happen, Gurley’s third down snaps would be the most affected. Since Gurley’s production mainly came on early downs, we might not have to worry as much.
Gurley did lead all RBs in snaps played in the slot, catching 15 balls for 141 yards, so it’s possible Henderson eats into that a bit.
Henderson can see 10 touches per game optimistically, and his upside is clear if Gurley were to go down. However, his role isn’t quite as clear in that scenario. It’s totally possible he maintains a similar role with Malcolm Brown taking over for Gurley, with the split moving closer to 50/50.
With the difference in price between him (7th round in 12-team PPR) and Malcolm Brown (undrafted in 12-team PPR), I’d much rather take my shot on Brown with my last pick.
Gurley would’ve outscored both CMC and Barkley if he played a full 16 last season, coming up 13 points short of finishing as the RB1. He led the league in fantasy points within the 20, 10, and 5 yard line.
Are you leaving that potential production on the table, or are you avoiding this risky situation altogether? How are you dealing with the Rams RB situation? 👇