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DJ Moore’s draft capital was definitely higher, he’s probably the more polished receiver between him and Curtis Samuel, and if he had a different QB, maybe Moore would emerge as the clear go-to WR.
But in Carolina, with Cam Newton, the two WRs haven’t been as distinguished in 2018; still, Moore’s ADP of 5.09 in 12-team PPR is still 4 rounds ahead of Samuel’s 9.07 spot.
Yes, Newton had a bum shoulder last year, but it didn’t effect him wanting to throw it to Samuel deep. Cam had a terrible game against the Saints, and the organization decided to pull the plug on his season. The three games prior to that, however, Moore and Samuel’s production was similar enough to where the 4-round difference in price might not be warranted.
The difference in fantasy points in those games were 0.1 PPR fantasy point in Moore’s favor. If you count the last six games of their season, Samuel had 1 more receiving yard than Moore.
Samuel had 36% of the air yard market share compared to Moore, while Moore led in overall market share. According to airyards.com, the weighted opportunity skewed slightly in Samuel’s favor 0.53 to 0.51. His 1.66 yards per route run was superior to Moore’s 1.38.
Samuel has apparently been the best offensive player in camp so far, and Ron Rivera said his progress has been “amazing… Right now he’s leaps and bounds from where he was his first year to his second year and now I think he’s taken an even bigger leap…” Beat reporters also have stated they wouldn’t be surprised if Samuel is the No. 1 WR once the season starts.
Samuel has also been in Cam’s favor when it comes to the end zone as well. He had 8 end zone targets that resulted in 3 TDs compared to Moore’s 1 TD on 4 end zone targets. Samuel led in the red zone targets as well 16-13.
I believe in Moore’s long term talent, but for 2019 redraft, why would we pay the premium for Moore when we can grab Samuel 4 rounds later?