And he happens to have the elite of elite as his WR1 in 2019…. hopefully.
The first thing we think of is how well Amari Cooper played right off the bat on a new team as soon as he was traded, but as good as Amari’s potential is, he’s not Antonio Brown. According to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, Antonio Brown’s success rate vs man coverage has been above the 96th percentile of the league’s WRs in each of the last five years; no other WR comes close according to Harmon.
We know that Jon Gruden favors his #1 WRs. From 1998 to 2006, Gruden’s #1 has averaged 141 targets, with the second highest WR target on the team averaging 79. Antonio Brown has averaged 171 targets over the last six years, and had a QB a lot more talented than Derek Carr. He’s going to have to take a hit for that, and probably won’t produce the type of results we’ve been used to his entire career. But because he’s simply an extreme talent, he’ll get open, he’ll command targets, and he’ll make plays. Should we expect the ceiling AB had with Ben? No, but Carr is capable of keeping AB afloat as a consistent WR1.
At his best, Carr had two guys in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree he used very differently; now all of those skills and more is combined into one guy. Considering what Crabtree was able to do in the end zone with Carr, AB will kill it in that department.
If he’s back and he’s over his foot issues, are you drafting AB over any of these guys? Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill, Juju, OBJ. Where do you draw the line? 👇👇👇