Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray split the load with the first team over the last two preseason games 21-13 snaps, respectively. That’s a 62% snap share for Kamara, pretty much in line with what Kamara saw with Ingram last year (60%). Kamara is going to kill it, but is he worth a top-3 pick when he’s not playing close to a full complement of snaps? He was the fantasy RB8 once Ingram came back last season. An argument can be made for him to belong at the 1-2 turn.
The other guys going around him like Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey are going to have snap counts close to 90%. With Ingram gone, his ADP implies most are buying into the fact that Kamara will see the snaps and ridiculous numbers he had in those first four weeks with Ingram suspended last year. He saw 31% of his total rushing yards, 38% of his total TDs, 43% of his total catches, and 47% of his total receiving yards in those 4 weeks.
Ingram out-carried Kamara at the goal line last season, and it’s possible Murray does as well given his short yardage success over the last several years.
Kamara is special, and his efficiency will keep his floor high, especially in PPR leagues. He’ll have ridiculous games as well, but he might not hit his ceiling ceiling as often as the high-volume guys going around him.