With the #1 overall pick, we don’t want to depend on efficiency, and that’s why Alvin Kamara wasn’t my favorite pick over legit high-end bellcow backs. A mix of efficiency and volume is great, but we should’ve seen the writing on the wall with Kamara. The good thing is that he wasn’t a complete bust in 2019, but his upside was limited because of volume. Whether Latavius Murray got the ball or not, or whether he was Mark Ingram or not, Kamara’s role didn’t change… as Sean Payton stated before the season.
2019 fantasy season: Averaged 18.6 touches for 97.9 total yards per game. 4 total TDs; Averaged 0.3 TDs per game.
2018 fantasy season: Averaged 18.9 touches for 106.2 total yards per game. 18 total TDs; Averaged 1.2 TDs per game.
What’s the big delta here? The touchdowns. If you look at fantasy points alone or touchdowns scored to project forward, you’re not taking a potential regression into account, especially when the TD rate is extremely high.
Volume is the best indicator for future fantasy production, so passing up on high-volume guys like McCaffrey, Zeke, or Barkley (regardless of the results) usually don’t play out a large percentage of the time. We could have easily had Kamara absolutely kill it this year with the same amount of volume, but the regression would hit at some point… it just happened to hit him this past season.
With that being said, I’m hoping Kamara’s unexciting year adjusts his price to the 1-2 turn in full PPR leagues, where I’ll be more than happy taking him. In a half point or non-PPR league, that price doesn’t seem too enticing. In non-PPR leagues, Kamara averaged only 11.5 fantasy points per game, which doesn’t justify an early round pick in that format.
In full PPR leagues, his 6 receptions per game during the fantasy season kept his floor high enough to be the RB8 in fantasy points per game, which is his floor. Again, this year was his floor, so drafting him as the 6th or 7th RB off the board is a good deal in that format.
Let’s hope for a Kamara discount in 2020. Where are you comfortable drafting him in PPR leagues? And if you’re in a non-PPR league, do you think his price will be too high because of name value?