Alvin Kamara was being considered before Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, and Dalvin Cook in many leagues last year, but he’s more appropriately priced going into 2020.
Once the clear bell cow backs are off the board, Kamara’s workload is set up to be more valuable than the rest of the first round RBs.
The 20 touches he averaged on a per game basis before his high ankle injury should be looked at a bit differently then, say, Derrick Henry’s workload, or Josh Jacobs’ workload. The difference between the two types of workloads is that one Kamara’s is heavily weighted towards receptions.
In full PPR leagues, a target is worth 2.8x more than a carry. I said reception in the video, but I was wrong. So if you look at the 6.5 targets and the 14.3 carries he averaged over those first 6 games before his high ankle sprain, that would equate to 32.5 opportunities compared to Henry’s 21.8 on weighted scale. Former PFF analyst Scott Barrett did a great breakdown on weighted opportunity during the 2019 draft season.
A few RBs who are candidates to have sneaky weighted opportunity in 2020 are Le’Veon Bell, Kenyan Drake, Miles Sanders, and Todd Gurley. These are guys whose passing volume will keep them afloat the very least, while significantly adding to their upside when considering their workload on the ground, red zone, and goal line touches. If a larger than usual percentage of a 18-20 touch average comes from the passing game, that’s a more valuable asset in PPR leagues.
Coming into 2019, I believed the backfield split would’ve been a big closer between Kamara and Latavius Murray based on Sean Payton’s long history of split backfields and Murray’s capabilities, but Kamara started the season playing almost 75% of snaps. With that knowledge going into 2020, he’s as safe a pick as there is in the middle of the 1st round in PPR leagues.
After the top 3 backs are off the board, Kamara is seemingly my my next guy up in full PPR leagues.