As I mentioned in my previous post about Alvin Kamara, a target for a RB is almost 3x as valuable as a carry in full PPR leagues. Former PFF analyst Scott Barrett (now of FantasyPoints.com) did some great analysis on weighing the type of opportunities RBs get, and judging their opportunity without treating every touch the same. Should we treat a carry in your own territory the same as a target in the red zone? At the end of the day, we treat that as one equal opportunity, but we can go deeper.
Based on targets being more valuable than carries in general, I calculated what the weighted opportunity looked like for RBs in 2019, which is what you see above. Carries are still treated like 1 touch, but each target was treated as 2.83x a carry. This is based on a target, on average, generating 2.83 times the amount of fantasy points a single carry would for a RB over the past 10 years. While raw touches have an extremely high correlation to fantasy points, weighted opportunity gives you an even higher one.
It gets even better. What I explain so far is the basic weighted opportunity without red zone usage. It’s obvious that red zone carries and targets are worth more than non-red zone ones. If we calculate that into this, we can get an even higher correlation. Those calculations will be coming soon, but I thought I should introduce the basics first. The difference in correlation is small, but worth noting, and the reason why it’s nice to have a RB who is involved in the pass game on a good offense.
If you look at the list above, these backs were extremely involved in both the run and pass game. Because of that, their opportunity is a lot higher than it would be if they were just getting 20 carries a game with limited work in the passing game. While this is the most extreme in full PPR leagues, targets are still almost 1.5x more valuable in non-PPR leagues, as well.