First of all, congrats to Derrick Henry on getting that 💰 Well deserved. Here’s a blurb that accompanies this 1 minute video: https://www.instagram.com/p/CCtf7EblWLv/
I have a hard time paying up for Derrick Henry in the first round of PPR leagues. While he consistently got volume all year long, it was only in the run game. He averaged 20.2 carries/game, which is amazing – he had less than 16 carries only 3 times all year.
But here’s the thing… he only averaged 1.6 targets per game. In PPR, that means he’s TD dependent… which was fine in 2019, because he averaged more than a TD per game. There were only 4 games last year in which he didn’t score; in those games, he had 11.8, 4.3, 9.3, and 8.6 PPR fantasy points… because he’s not catching any passes to keep his floor high enough.
Do we expect him to score another 16 TDs in 2020? That’s not what I want to bank on with my first round pick, especially if I can grab another high-end RB a lot more involved in the pass game, or an elite WR at that spot.
You might have seen the posts I’ve put up on weighted opportunity in PPR leagues, and you may have noticed that Derrick Henry wasn’t anywhere near the top-10 last year, and that’s because he couldn’t get the much more valuable (almost 3x as valuable) targets to complement his workload on the ground.
Can Henry score another 12 TDs this year and keep you happy? Of course. But TDs are skewed from year to year; past TDs are not necessarily indicative for future TDs. There are exceptions to the rule, and a guy like Adrian Peterson comes to mind… but even he was catching a couple balls per game most of his career.
The good news is that we know that the Titans offense revolves around getting Henry the ball, and without him they will likely implode… which is why they paid him.
Are you still drafting Henry in the first round? Remember, we got him for a 4th rounder last year, and now we have to pay a premium because of the season he just had. Do you have confidence that he’ll still score 12+ TDs to keep you happy most weeks with the price you paid?