2019 was a great year for rookie WRs. With a shortened offseason and not enough for rookies to get acclimated to the NFL, we might have to temper expectations for rookies WRs in 2020.
The reason why four of these WRs are highlighted is because they all ran over 2 yards per route/run on at least 250 routes as a rookie.
Since 2010, 91.67% of rookies who hit that threshold have went on to have at least one WR1 season in the careers. On average, these WRs were either a WR1 or WR2 for 3.33 seasons, with 2.58 of those seasons as a WR1.
So yes, that means these four WRs all have very good chance of having at least one WR1 season, along with being very fantasy relevant for multiple seasons.
By the way, AJ Brown’s yards/route run was 3rd in the entire NFL, only behind Michael Thomas and Stefon Diggs… and right ahead of Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones, Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup.
Hunter Renfrow’s yards/route run should be taken with a grain of salt because he ran a majority of his routes from the slot, but it’s still noteworthy, and he should still be considered at the end of all of our PPR drafts.
Terry McLaurin ran the most routes of any these guys as the main target on his team, and he’s the only one who qualified for the 90-target threshold where he ranked 11th in the NFL in yards/route run. While AJ Brown is a beast, McLaurin is in line for more targets on a more balanced offense, and is being drafted later.
It’s a great time to buy Deebo in dynasty, especially from teams who are in “win now” mode. He’s tricky in redraft, but there’s a chance he can become a value if his ADP keeps dropping. Stay tuned for the reports from camp on him.
If you’re wondering about the others, they fall into the bucket (1.50-1.99 YPRR) of having about a 30% chance of reaching at least one WR1 season. So you’re saying there’s a chance? Yes.
Yards/route run isn’t the only indicator of success, but it’s a strong one.