ESPN puts out a consistency article every year based on how often and how close players get to their FPPG average – standard deviation divided by FPPG. Check out the graphic below from the Upper Hand Fantasy Instagram account.
Derrick Henry was just outside the top-10 at 11. He averaged 20.8 FPPG, 3rd in the league behind Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook. Henry had so many ridiculous boom weeks (40 in Week 6, 38 in Week 12, 36 in Week 14) and several “down” weeks (8 in Week 2, 6.8 in Week 9, 5.9 in Week 13, 9.8 in Week 16), so his variance was a lot higher than a lot of these other players.
Would we rather have Henry on our team than a lot of the players on this list? Of course!
What does that mean? It means we need to embrace variance! If you want your player to be as mathematically consistent as possible, it’s less likely that player will win a week for you. You obviously want overall team consistency, but your fantasy teams need a mix of consistent players and players who will occasionally blow your opponent out of the water.
Any surprises on this list? Who will or will not be on your draft radar this year?