After the conclusion of the 2019 season, here’s how WRs ranked in yards/route run, with a minimum of 85 targets.
1. Michael Thomas – 2.88
2. Stefon Diggs – 2.69
3. Tyreek Hill – 2.45
4. Julio Jones – 2.44
5. Davante Adams – 2.33
Diggs was sitting right there among the elite WRs in one of the most predictive stats for WR fantasy success. According to PFF, after raw targets and total fantasy production of the previous year, the previous year’s YPRR has the best correlation to fantasy points for receivers for the following season.
We already knew that he was one of the, if not the, best route runner in the league.
He was also one of the best long-ball WR in the league in 2019; he had the highest catch % on passes thrown to him over 20 yards, and he had the most receiving yards and TDs on those deep targets.
By the numbers, an elite WR was being traded to become the Bills WR1, but his consensus ADP was in the 5th round.
This is a good lesson for us all, including myself. When that type of talent is being drafted that low, it’s worth taking a shot on the upside. The downside for Diggs was that he was an inconsistent WR3, so he wouldn’t have been considered a complete bust at his price anyway.
The reason why we didn’t go after Diggs was because he was going to be on a potentially run-heavy offense with a non-accurate QB. And with all the success Diggs has had on deep passes, Josh Allen was a terrible deep-ball QB in 2019. Well, that all changed in an instant.
Same argument can be made with Keenan Allen at his price, with the same lesson learned.
Were you one of the few wondering why Diggs was being drafted so low, and scooped him up every chance you got?