Do you go by the eye test only? How much do the numbers matter?
Here’s a little preview (video below) into my process when evaluating players. This video was part of a discussion around college players moving to the NFL, and how difficult it is to figure out who will make it, and who won’t… to put it simply.
Watching film is great. It’s fun, informative, and it gives you an idea of a player’s playmaking skills.
But it’s subjective. It’s important, but subjective.
When it comes to specific metrics, a lot of people in the fantasy industry have done fantastic work trying to figure out which ones correlate best to fantasy success – when it comes to college skill players moving to the NFL, as well as predicting potential breakout years for existing NFL players.
I often cite a lot of these stats in my work, because it puts a number on how confident we can be on a player succeeding in the NFL compared to his peers.
While it’s not a perfect process, and while there are most definitely outliers, it’s hard not to ignore certain metrics for RBs and WRs when they have a decent correlation to future success. Because these exist, I will always depend on them to help me predict future success in fantasy.
And the key word is future. Can a metric from the past help me predict future success? That’s what I personally lean into. Again, it’s nowhere near perfect, but it’s a process that is dependent on hit rates that are high enough to work with.
Where are you on this spectrum? Do you combine watching a player with the metrics? Do you ignore the metrics? Let me know where you stand on evaluating players.
This clip was taken from one of our most recent podcasts, linked below the video. We talk about a few players who looked good at the Senior Bowl with Jason Aponte (@JasonAponte2103 on Twitter), who was in Mobile for practices and the game. Joe, the @fantasy.football.analyst, also gives us a sneak peak at some Q&A he did with Super Bowl players during Media Week. Check out the episode!