Carson Wentz was traded, DeSean Jackson was released, and Alshon Jeffery is expected to be released when the new league year begins. Zach Ertz is also expected to be traded or released.
With Jalen Hurts at QB (for now), here is what the skill positions look like:
QB – Jalen Hurts
RB1 – Miles Sanders
WR1 – Jalen Reagor
WR2 – Travis Fulgham
Slot WR – Greg Ward
TE: Dallas Goedert
More WRs: Quez Watkins, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Marquise Goodwin, John Hightower
When Hurts took over at QB, here is what his target distribution looked like:
Zach Ertz 24
Jalen Reagor 21
Dallas Goedert 19
Greg Ward 19
Miles Sanders 13
The first thing that stands out is the fact that without Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert will likely get all the opportunity at tight end. He easily stands out as someone who will benefit greatly, given the fact that 32% of his targets went towards his tight ends.
I wouldn’t worry too much about a second tight end, because Doug Pederson was a running a 2-TE heavy offense. Nick Sirianni, coming from the Frank Reich scheme, will likely primarily run an 11-personnel offense, with 3 WRs and 1 TE on the field for most offensive plays.
Also, don’t give up on Jalen Reagor. He missed 5 games to begin the season, and the offense was clearly a hot mess. Reagor did lead the Eagles in receiving while Hurts was behind center, and he has an opportunity to take hold of that WR1 role off the bat in 2021. You’ll likely be able to get him extremely cheap in drafts, and with him not showing a ton during his rookie year, he can be a cheap dynasty buy.
Reagor came into the league as a prospect who broke out at 18, had a dominator rating of 30%+ at 19, and was drafted in the first round. WRs who meet that criteria have had a 70% hit rate in terms of having at least one top-24 season in the NFL (check out Peter Howdy on Twitter). Now, if you factor in his rookie year, the WR1 hit rate based on his 1.30 yards/route run goes down to about 10% (based on FantasyPros’ John Bauer’s study).
As far as Miles Sanders goes, his 2020 RB coach Duce Staley was a huge proponent of him getting the entire workload, and it worked; Sanders had the 5th highest opportunity share among RBs in terms. Unfortunately, Staley is now providing those services for D’Andre Swift in Detroit. There’s no guarantee Sanders get a huge share in 2021, and if Sirianni is anything like Frank Reich, it’s possible we see a timeshare. We have a lot more offseason to figure that out.