Trevor Lawrence is one of the best prospects to come out in years, and has a shot to be your dynasty team’s QB1 for a long time. Because of the potential elite talent, the longevity factors plays a big role in having him as the 1.01 in Superflex rookie drafts. Regardless of whether Urban Meyer pans out, Lawrence looks like he’ll be here to stay.
Trey Lance is going to benefit big-time because of Kyle Shanahan’s offense. He gets a leg up on every rookie QB because of the system. Shanahan will not put a ton on his plate to start out, and will put him in positions to succeed. Lance will have a great offensive line, a running game to support him, and legit weapons in the pass game. Remember, Lance ran for 1100 yards on 169 carries in 2019. This dude can have a legit rushing floor to add to all of the benefits listed above, and if he starts throwing TDs, he has immense upside. He’s my fantasy dynasty QB2.
Justin Fields has good weapons, has deadly accuracy, and has legs to support him big time from a fantasy perspective. Matt Nagy finally drafted his own QB, so things can turn out differently for his offense, but Nagy still has to prove that he can be a consistent play caller and groom his rookie QB the right way.
Zach Wilson gives the Jets some hope, especially with the way they’ve transformed their offense. The left side of their line is more than solid, and they have five legit weapons in the passing game in Corey Davis, Denzel Mims, Jamison Crowder, Elijah Moore, and Chris Herndon. The Shanahan scheme made its way to New York as well, so things are pointing up for this offense, and as a result, Wilson has a ton of upside.
Mac Jones is in a situation where he’ll likely sit behind Cam Newton to start. He has no rushing ability, so he’ll have to have some good pass catchers to keep him fantasy relevant, if he ever gets there. For now, he won’t be prioritized in any fantasy rookie drafts.
Najee Harris landed in the perfect spot for fantasy purposes. The offensive line is in shambles, but the opportunity will be ideal. He’ll likely be a bell cow for Mike Tomlin, who has been desperately wanting that guy since Le’Veon Bell left. He forced James Conner into that role, but he couldn’t last too long. Now, Harris will get enough opportunity in the run and pass game to compete for a Top-10 fantasy RB spot.
Javonte Williams will be in a timeshare with Melvin Gordon to start 2021, but Gordon is on the last year of his deal. Williams will still contribute in Year 1, but it’s potential bell cow time after that. Broncos’ OC Pat Shurmur is a fan of workhorses based on his history, so expect Williams to be a great asset for at least a few years. He’s someone who should be able to handle that load, and be efficient with the work given.
Travis Etienne enters a timeshare with at least James Robinson in Jacksonville, but his role remains a bit unclear. Urban Meyer mentioned that he’ll play on third downs and in 2-back sets, and that Robinson + Carlos Hyde will be the early down guys. He also compared Etienne to Percy Harvin, who went HAM in Meyer’s offense in college. They are different types of players, but it seems as though Meyer has a big receiving role for Etienne on deck. He becomes a bit risky in redraft leagues depending on his price, but remains a high-end dynasty asset from this class because of his dynamic skillset.
Michael Carter landed in a great fantasy situation on the Jets, where he figures to be the 1a of a committee. Carter isn’t a workhorse type, but he can easily have a role on all three downs… maybe play around 65% of snaps or so? That would be more than enough to make him a fantasy RB2 if he is very involved in the pass game, as he should. Carter is elusive, and he can be very efficient on limited touches. If the backfield remains as is, I would expect somewhere between 15-18 touches for Carter on a weekly basis. From a dynasty perspective, I would assume Carter will have a more capable complement at some point… maybe as early as 2022.
Trey Sermon was drafted by the 49ers in the 3rd round, which gives him pretty good draft capital to put more stock into him than you might have before getting drafted. He enters an extremely crowded backfield with Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, Wayne Gallman, and newly drafted (who I like more than most) Elijah Mitchell. Because of the draft capital, I would give him the benefit of doubt in an amazing run scheme for dynasty purposes, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he never gets enough work to keep you happy for a sustained period of time. There’s no guarantee that a guy like Elijah Mitchell doesn’t step up next season to form a committee with him. However, the upside is there if ever given a full workload, especially in this scheme.
Kenneth Gainwell was drafted by the Eagles, so that gives them an option for a pass-catching RB behind Miles Sanders. Is it possible Gainwell forms a complement with Sanders? Yes, definitely. It’s also possible that he’s strictly someone who will spell him, and/or someone they use more-so in the pass game as a utility player. Gainwell is someone you can grab in your rookie drafts for some legit upside.
Chuba Hubbard instantly becomes Christian McCaffrey’s handcuff. Panthers’ OC spoke about getting a back behind McCaffrey who can handle all three downs, and he goes ahead and drafts Hubbard. The assumption is that Hubbard would get that workload if McCaffrey were to go down to injury.
Ja’Marr Chase gets reunited with Joe Burrow. Chase put up 1780 yards and 20 TDs in 2019 with Burrow on a team that had Justin Jefferson… this guy is the truth. He has the chance to become the Bengals’ top option at WR very soon, despite them having two very legitimate WRs in Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. He’s the WR1 in this draft class, and he’s also the top redraft candidate to have a big Year 1… remember, he’s been training for the NFL for entirety of 2020 after opting out.
Devonta Smith instantly becomes the WR1 for the Eagles, which makes his fantasy value a lot higher. He’s a small WR, but his route running and separation skills might be the best of this class. Because of it, we can’t sleep on him because the numbers say he won’t make it in the NFL. Is it possible he busts at the next level? The late breakout and BMI say yes, but he’s not the guy I want to bet against… he’s special.
Jalen Waddle gets back with his college QB, who he didn’t necessarily have the best connection with in college… at least when you compare how Tua did with his other receivers from an efficiency standpoint. Waddle enters a WR room that already has Will Fuller and DeVante Parker, two WRs who have a case to be the Dolphins’ alpha. Waddle figures to start in the slot, so the hope is that the Dolphins can get the ball in his hands early and often. From a dynasty perspective, Waddle can easily be the only WR left standing between these guys, between contract situations and injury history… although he himself has had some injury woes. Regardless, his upside might be one of the highest in this class.
Elijah Moore‘s route running will allow him to be very productive in the NFL, but it’ll likely take a Jamison Crowder release or injury for him to become very productive in Year 1. Beyond that though, Moore has the upside of being a WR1 for fantasy, so don’t sleep on him when comparing him to the rest of the bigger names at WR.
Rashod Bateman lands on a run-heavy Ravens team, and unless they change their ways to become less run heavy, Bateman’s upside isn’t too big. There is some upside in the future, however, if they choose to do just that, or if they end up firing OC Greg Roman. He’s more of the problem than Lamar Jackson is when it comes to creating an upside fantasy WR. Bateman is one of my favorite receivers in this class, so I’m hoping it happens.
Terrace Marshall gets reunited with LSU OC Joe Brady. It seems like the Panthers will put Marshall on the outside, so it might be tougher for him to get a ton of targets in Year 1 with Robby Anderson and DJ Moore on the team as well… however, we saw Teddy Bridgewater support three top-24 WRs last year, so it’s very possible Sam Darnold can do the same. Looking down the line from a dynasty perspective, being tied to Joe Brady and this offense is a great thing for Marshall’s fantasy future… especially if the Panthers choose to let go of Anderson once his contract is up.
Kadarius Toney was overdrafted by the Giants, in my opinion. There’s no doubt Toney is a playmaker, but he has ways to go in his route running, and might not be able to get it going early in his career. This team has Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley to throw the ball to… there’s no where obvious for Toney to slide in right away, and there are even bigger questions at QB. I won’t be prioritizing him in drafts. The fact that Toney went off the board before Elijah Moore and Rashod Bateman still has me scratching my head. I will admit that Toney has upside if he can get into the right role with volume.
Amari Rodgers went to the Packers before word came out that they wanted Kadarius Toney. The Packers got the more polished slot receiver between the two, although Toney’s upside is probably higher. Rodgers’ upside lies solely in the hands of Aaron Rodgers and whether he stays in Green Bay. Rodgers’ value will increase a ton if Rodgers doesn’t go anywhere, but that is up in the air right now. You can probably buy Rodgers later in rookie drafts because of the unknown. The silver lining here is that Rodgers will line up in the slot, so he won’t have much issue being able to get separation.
Terrace Marshall will likely line up on the outside, based on Matt Rhule’s words in his Day 2 press conference. He can play outside, and he’s in good hands with his LSU OC Joe Brady. With DJ Moore and Robby Anderson there, Marshall might have to wait for his upside to be unleashed. Anderson is under contract for only one more season. Still, Marshall is someone who can separate against man on the outside as he showed at LSU in 2019, and he showed his ability to excel in the slot in 2020. Edit: Yes, I realized I put up Marshall twice. I’m leaving it as is!
Dyami Brown can excel with Ryan Fitzpatrick’s play style, but we don’t really know how long Fitz will be in town. Brown is a downfield, contested catch type of WR, but he’s a great complement Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel. Because of the unknown at QB, Brown is a bit of a boom/bust fantasy prospect, but Washington will be a QB away from having a great offense once Fitz inevitably moves on.
Amon-Ra St. Brown seems to be have the best obvious opportunity in Year 1. The Lions have the most vacated targets, end zone targets, and air yards. Their depth chart at WR wouldn’t make any team proud, so he has a chance to step into the slot and be Jared Goff’s top WR option. In dynasty though, don’t overvalue him; the Lions can easily draft or sign a high-end WR as soon as next off-season. They clearly need one, and they’ll likely make a move for one soon.
D’Wayne Eskridge lands on a great offense, but will obviously have a tough time commanding targets next to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Situations change fast though for a million reasons, so any receiver tied to Russell Wilson can have upside at some point.
Rondale Moore figures to immediately slide into one Arizona’s 4 WR set, but he’s likely to not get a large target share off the bat. Arizona signed AJ Green, and regardless of what our opinion of him is at this stage of his career, it seems as though Kliff Kingsbury highly values Green as one of his top 2 WRs. Christian Kirk also will command some targets as well, so it’ll be tough to get all these guys to be fantasy relevant. Moore is a playmaker, so Kingsbury would have to show some creativity he hasn’t shown so far in the NFL to get him going from a fantasy perspective.
Tutu Atwell to the Rams was a head-scratching pick. It seems as though they had a very niche need, and drafted for that need. I don’t see how Atwell becomes fantasy relevant on this offense as it stands with Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, and Tyler Higbee as the top options. Atwell is also one of the smallest receivers in this draft, so he would have to overcome a lot to become someone we’re looking at from a fantasy perspective.
Tylan Wallace is one of the better late-tier rookie WR prospects, had some awesome production in college relative to his team. He is a very good contested catch WR, will be a great end zone target, but he doesn’t have the best measurables in terms of speed, agility, etc. In Baltimore, I won’t be expecting anything from him while OC Greg Roman is in town. The Ravens already selected a great WR1 in Rashod Bateman, they still have Hollywood Brown as their WR1/WR2, and Wallace will be in the conversation after them. I’m off of Wallace in redraft, but he’s still a quality rookie WR in dynasty drafts.
Kyle Pitts went to a great landing spot in Atlanta. Arthur Smith’s offense targeted the TE at the 3rd highest rate in 2020, and Delanie Walker excelled under Smith while he was Tennessee’s TE coach. There’s no doubt Smith has tons of plans for Pitts. All that aside, Pitts is a beast, and profiles as a dominant X WR, let alone a TE. He can dominate from Day 1. He should be on redraft radars as well; he’s someone who breaks the mold.
Pat Freiermuth likely won’t be impactful early, but can be relevant a year or two from now in Pittsburgh.
Hunter Long went to Miami and will be behind Mike Gesicki for now, but can be fantasy relevant a year or two from now.
Tommy Tremble will likely sit behind Dan Arnold and Ian Thomas for now in Carolina, but he’s someone to pay attention to in a couple of years, especially under a bright mind in OC Joe Brady.
Brevin Jordan only has Jordan Akins ahead of him right now currently, and he can make his way to the top of the depth chart at some point. QB situation is obviously a question, but he’ll have opportunity sooner than later in his career.
Tre McKitty was added to the Chargers TE room, who only has Donald Parham and Jared Cook currently, so McKitty will likely have an opportunity with Justin Herbert sooner than later.
Myles Gaskin (Salvon Ahmed, Malcolm Brown)
Chase Edmonds (James Conner, Rondale Moore)
AJ Brown (lost Jonnu Smith, Adam Humphries, Corey Davis). Josh Reynolds? Please.
Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney
Zack Moss, Devin Singletary (Zack Moss)
Matt Ryan – weapons
D’Andre Swift – no legit pass catcher to take anything away. RBs profit in these situations
Bryan Edwards, someone deep in dynasty who is currently the Raiders X receiver
Tre’Quan Smith if Jameis is their guy
In a way, you can also say Etienne and Javonte for redraft, but they’ll be fine for dynasty purposes.
Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd