Detroit leads the league in vacated targets, and when you look at teams in similar situations over the last several years, RBs have been huge beneficiaries in terms of targets the following season. As much as we want to give WRs the benefit of doubt for more target share in these situations, it doesn’t always work out that way.
Let me address some of the concerns surrounding D’Andre Swift.
Even with Jamaal Williams being added to the backfield, Swift should have a hold on a 3-down role, while being the primary goal line and passing down back; Williams can easily see 30% of snaps, but I 65-70% of snaps for Swift is enough to keep him afloat as a solid RB1.
We should also expect an overall bad Lions offense this year, given the QB change and loss of their main weapons. However, it will benefit Swift because of the extra opportunity going his way. As we saw with James Robinson last year, you don’t have to be on a high-powered offense, as long as you can produce with your opportunity.
Remember, his offensive line is one of the best in the league. The Lions are not going to be a pass-heavy team given their QB and WR situation. Their new OC Anthony Lynn had the Chargers in the top-10 of rushing attempts/game last year.
I wouldn’t surprised if we Swift catches 65-70 balls this year on top of another 230-250 carries. And he’ll likely perform with that opportunity; he ranked 5th in YPRR among all RBs with 50+ targets last year – behind legit pass catchers Kamara, James White, Nyheim Hines, and Austin Ekeler.
He was also 3rd among all RBs with at least 100 opportunities in fantasy points/opportunity.
HC Dan Campbell and Assistance HC/RB coach Duce Staley both believe Swift is a workhorse back.
Here’s what Staley had to say about Swift: “When you have a good back, an electrifying back, touches are definitely more important (than just carries)… You can get 18 carries and 7 receptions, and you have 25 touches, which is what you want from your star back. When I look at D’Andre, I do think he’s a three-down back.”
Campbell also said he wants to line him up in the slot a bunch.
Anthony Lynn also gave his Chargers RBs the 2nd most targets in 2020.
3rd round ADP? 🔥