Antonio Brown is going to have a full off-season with him team. With his best friend Tom Brady.
He might not be elite anymore, but he’s damn sure closer to elite than being washed up.
AB wasn’t 100% during the playoffs because of a knee injury, and that was after he went 15/11/138/2 in Week 17.
Still, despite not playing more than 45% of snaps in the playoffs, he scored 6 TDs in his last 6 games.
According to @mattharmon_byb’s Reception Perception, AB is still doing his thing in a big way against man and zone coverage in terms of separation.
We’ve touched on the Bucs’ WR inconsistencies when all of them play, but with Brown being far cheaper than Mike Evans and Chris Godwin this year, I am drafting him over the other two 10 times out of 10.
When these guys were playing together from Weeks 9-17, here was the target distribution:
AB: 7.8 targets
Evans: 7.9 targets
Godwin: 6.9 targets
AB’s depth of target was lower than the other two, but it’s possible it was because he didn’t have enough time to acclimate to Bruce Arian’s system. I wouldn’t be surprised if his aDOT increases this season, and those targets become more valuable.
His targets can go up too, given that he didn’t play a full complement of snaps in almost any game last year. He got close in Week 17 when he went nuts, as I talked about above.
Brown was actually top-3 in PPR fantasy points per 100 snaps played (min. 40 snaps/game). That list:
Davante Adams 46.2
Tyreek Hill 36.5
Antonio Brown 36.3
Calvin Ridley 34.2
Stefon Diggs 34.1
Will Fuller 32.7
Curtis Samuel 32.2
AJ Brown 31.8
Julio Jones 31.2
Chase Claypool 31.1
Justin Jefferson 30.9
There are some serious names on that list.
AB is available in the 8th or 9th round at times, and he’s very hard to ignore at that price… because I still believe he has serious weekly upside. He’s being drafted as a WR4, and I believe his floor is higher.
You targeting AB this year?