When trying to beat fantasy football, you are looking to exploit a market. And just like any other type of market, there are always inefficiencies. This allows us as market participants to exploit them for profit (or in our case, edge against our opponents).
This year is no different, as the market has continued its yearly tradition of undervaluing Tyler Boyd.
The Bengals are probably not going to win a lot of football games this year, and that’s a good thing.
Why would we target Tyler Boyd, let alone anyone in the Bengals offense, when the team isn’t going to win a lot of games?
Vegas has set the Bengals win total to over/under 6.5 games, with +118 odds (meaning a 34.7% implied probability). Because of this, we can expect a lot of pass attempts. When Joe Burrow was healthy last season, the Bengals were 9th in fastest pace of play and passed at a league high 65%.
Translation: They’re are going to have to play a lot of catch up this year (think Dallas offense pre-Dak injury).
Ok, but what about Jamarr Chase, isn’t he going to steal a lot of targets?
Last year when AJ Green was on the Bengals, he was abysmal. He led the team in air yards, 200 more than Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, but had half the receiving production. He had opportunity (one that Chase will step into) but just couldn’t produce. This means 1) Chase has a role to step into without taking away too many looks from Boyd, and 2) He can keep around the same target share from last year, while having the offense be more efficient and potent.
Ok, the offense is good and there’s plenty to go around, it must be the talent right?
Among all slot receivers since 2019, Boyd is second in catches with 126, first in yards with 1515, and was first in catches of 15+ yards (31). Tyler Boyd developed instant chemistry with Joe Burrow, averaging 7 receptions and 71 yards per game prior to Burrow’s injury. He’s good at football.
Tyler Boyd is being valued as the 35th best receiver, or a low end WR3. A fast paced, lethal offense that throws the ball at one of the highest rates is capable of supporting the cast of Tyler Boyd, Jamarr Chase, and Tee Higgins. Draft the value of the three.