Jaylen Waddle - WR11, 2nd Round
I’ve never seen a game log from a top-10 fantasy receiver quite like what Jaylen Waddle posted in 2022. He had five weekly top-10 finishes where he averaged 27.1 PPR points per game, which is absolutely ridiculous, but he also had five games where he posted point totals in the single digits (he averaged 5.3 PPR points per game in those). He finished as a weekly WR2 just twice last year.
So what does that mean? It means Waddle is either winning you your week or losing it. There’s very little in between on a weekly basis for Waddle, especially running opposite Tyreek Hill in the Dolphins offense. The good news is that Tua is healthy, and that's especially encouraging considering that Waddle’s five best games all came with him under center. He was a top-10 receiver in five games out of 12 where Tua was healthy, and he was top-7 in four. That kind of upside can’t be ignored, especially considering the nature of the Dolphins offense which is, simply put, speed.
Tua was second in ADOT last year, so he’s going to continue to throw it deep as he should. I don’t particularly like his price on Underdog right now – that volatility isn’t something I want to take on with my second pick of the draft. But I completely understand shooting for the week-winning upside that Waddle undeniably has.
Jordan Addison - WR37, 6-7 Turn
It’s obviously going to be interesting to see if Addison can compete for targets in the same offense as the best fantasy receiver in the league right now and a Top-5 fantasy tight end, but I think it’s definitely possible. He should step right into the spot vacated by Adam Thielen, which featured plenty of touchdowns over the years while Thielen operated in that role.
Cousins is a consistent fantasy quarterback and distributes the ball well, and throws at a high volume in Kevin O’Connell’s system (643 pass attempts ranked fourth in the NFL). Addison is more talented than Thielen was, and he should have no trouble upping the ceiling that exists for the Vikings WR2 role. He might not be a WR1 alongside Justin Jefferson because of T.J. Hockenson’s presence in the offense, but he can be a WR2 very easily – potentially top-20.
He’s being drafted as a high WR4 right now, and that’s inexpensive relative to the upside that he can have. We’re all about targeting good players in good offenses, and I’m confident about Addison’s upside being higher than guys going ahead of him, including Mike Evans, Michael Pittman, and even Marquise Brown.