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Writer's pictureUpper Hand Staff

2024 Fantasy Football "My Guys"


For whatever reason, everyone has a handful of players that they just have to have when walking away from their fantasy football draft. These are our "my guys" that we must have in almost every single one of our fantasy football drafts this season:


Faraz's "My Guys"

1. Nico Collins (WR - Houston Texans):

What does having a WR1 finish in 2023, putting up the second-highest yards per route run (3.37) behind only Tyreek Hill, and being tethered to one of the game's best young quarterbacks get you as a fantasy football wide receiver going into 2024? For Nico Collins, it's disrespected. Whether or not Nico is the WR1 in Houston just might be the most frequently asked question of the offseason so far, but a closer look at his breakout 2023 season reveals a player that isn't going to be bullied out of his No. 1 spot on the depth chart by Stefon Diggs or Tank Dell. Along with the aforementioned ridiculous per-route productivity, Collins also posted a very promising 0.28 targets per route run, good for 12th in the NFL among wide receivers to run 100 or more routes. The Texans were able to retain OC Bobby Slowik for QB C.J. Stroud's second pro season, who dialed up the pass at the 12th-highest rate in the league in 2023. That continued reliance on the pass will help sustain Nico even with plenty of competition for targets - which, by the way, Collins is no stranger to dealing with and excelling in spite of. Last year, five different Texans pass catchers, including Collins, logged target shares over 14.8%: himself (21.1%), Tank Dell (19.0%), Dalton Schultz (15.7%), Noah Brown (15.2%), and Robert Woods (14.8%). Collins proved himself to be anything but volume-dependent last year, scoring the 7th-most PPR points per game in 2023 despite ranking 68th in route participation (66.2%).


Collins is an example of a WR who has gotten better at his craft regardless of his QB, so matching CJ Stroud at the right place at the right time is a match made in heaven. Make no mistake - regardless of his QB, Collins has the skills to be a true NFL alpha WR1. The addition of Diggs to the picture will most definitely affect target distribution, but expect it to be extremely tight between their three star WRs. Tank Dell and Collins had similar target earning opportunities last year, but it was on a small sample size, and Dell is coming off of a fractured fibula (i.e., Waddle, Pollard). After signing a lucrative three-year, $72M extension in Houston, it's clear the Texans intend to feature Nico Collins moving forward, and as long as Stroud is under center, Collins will remain a borderline WR1.


2. Trey McBride (TE - Arizona Cardinals):

It took Zach Ertz getting injured for McBride to claim a full-time role in the Cardinals offense, but once he did, he seized the job from the veteran TE and didn't give it back. Through Week 7 when Ertz went down, McBride was averaging just 4.6 PPR points per game without eclipsing a 60% route participation once in those seven contests. However, opportunity knocked in the eighth game with Ertz sidelined by injury, and in his first game registering a route participation over 80%, McBride finished as the overall TE1 on the week with a 10-95-1 line. That type of productivity and utilization continued from Week 8 on and through Kyler Murray's return until the end of the year, with McBride leading all TEs in target share (25.8%) and first-read percentage (31.8%), as well as ranking fourth overall in PPR points per game (15.0). His 2.15 yards per route run also ranked second among all TEs on the season, and McBride reeled in either at least five catches or a touchdown in every game he played with Murray under center.


Looking into 2024, the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. could certainly drive down McBride's target share depending on how quickly the rookie WR acclimates to the NFL; however, McBride has more than proven himself as a target earner and will be no lower than the second option in the offense this year. A full year of Kyler Murray after a full year removed from an ACL injury at quarterback (and a full year of high-end route participation, as well) should help McBride contend for the overall TE1 spot.


3. DeVonta Smith (WR - Philadelphia Eagles):

Widely regarded as one of the best, if not the best, No. 2 wide receivers in the NFL, Smith is officially locked into that role in real life and for fantasy purposes, after both he and teammate A.J. Brown signed twin 3-year deals worth $75M and $96M, respectively. While Smith's overall production on the season was right in line with what we've come to expect from the former first-round pick - his 7 touchdowns and 14.3 PPR points per game in 2023 were very similar to his 7 touchdowns and 15.0 PPR points per game in 2022 - his opportunity share diminished drastically from his first year running alongside A.J. Brown to the second.


After notching WR1-worthy marks in target share (24.8%), air yards share (31.0%), and yards per route run (2.24) in 2022, Smith didn't fare as well in 2023: while his air yards share remained stable (31.8%), his target share (20.9%) and yards per route run (1.96) fell squarely out of the WR1 conversation. The drop in target share could be attributed to an increased reliance on running backs in the passing game in 2023 relative to 2022, with two Eagles RBs (D'Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell) posting target shares of 8.7% and 6.7%, respectively, after having no running back eclipse 5.2% in 2022. While Swift is out of the picture, the addition of Saquon Barkley could very well mean just as many, if not more, targets going into the backfield in 2024. The silver lining, however, lies with new OC Kellen Moore. The former Cowboys and Chargers OC has demonstrated a heavy reliance on the passing game, throwing the ball at the third-highest rate in the NFL last season with Justin Herbert and the 6th-highest rate with Dak Prescott in 2021.


While the Eagles will likely look to maintain their identity in the ground game with Barkley and Hurts in the backfield, Moore's influence should help last year's 12th-ranked offense in run play rate air things out more often. However, with Dallas Goedert averaging a very healthy 18% target share, as well, Smith's ceiling lies more reasonably in the mid-high WR2 range than within the top 12.

 
Tyler's "My Guys"

1. Kyle Pitts (TE - Atlanta Falcons):

The problem has never been talent or ability for Kyle Pitts, entering the league as one of the most talented and pro-ready TE prospects in NFL history despite beginning his NFL career at just 21 years old. The issue at hand has always been QB play, getting semi-competent QB play from a 36-year-old Matt Ryan in 2021 (Pitts finished as the TE6 despite just 1 TD), then getting a rotating carousel of mediocrity between Marcus Mariota, Taylor Heinicke, and Desmond Ridder over the last two seasons. He leads all TEs in average depth of target (11.7) and is 2nd among TEs in yards per reception since entering the NFL.


Going from the horrific QB situation he was in with the Falcons' combining for a 26.1% off-target pass percentage in 2023 and the 2nd-fewest on-target passes (287) over the last two years to Kirk Cousins (82.2% on-target pass percentage, 2nd in 2023) is enough to push him back to fantasy success. The opportunity should now finally be there for Pitts to succeed, and with him going as a mid-TE1 (TE7, mid-7th round on ADP), I want him in every draft if I can't get an elite TE at a reasonable price.


2. Jayden Daniels (QB - Washington Commanders):

The NFL is changing into a more dynamic league, especially at the QB position where for the first time in the modern fantasy football era, the top 5 fantasy QBs had an average of over 20% of their fantasy points come from running the ball in consecutive seasons. This aligns perfectly with an offensive scheme (Kliff Kingsbury) that allowed Kyler Murray to thrive as a top-8 fantasy QB as a rookie and a historically good scrambler in Jayden Daniels in college (most yards per game via scrambling since Lamar Jackson's 2016).


The talent is there, the favorable scoring format is there, the supporting cast (McLaurin, Dotson, Ertz, etc.) is there, but the absurd price tag is not. He's currently being drafted as the QB12 off the board in the 11th round. Daniels is a QB that I very much envision top-5 upside for and is one that I'd be willing to reach up to 2 rounds above his ADP on draft day to make sure he's on my team.


3. David Montgomery (RB - Detroit Lions):

Montgomery is the perfect RB2 for fantasy - you know what you're getting pretty much each and every week: somewhere between 8 and 15 points in PPR scoring, sometimes a bit more but very rarely anything less. In 2023, he posted 10+ points in all but one game: a game where he exited mid-way through the 2nd quarter.


You're getting an extremely consistent, extremely stable RB behind one of the best offensive lines that has shown to be effective even despite another RB taking a large amount of work (RB13 from Week 10 onward while Gibbs was the RB5). You get that stability at a limited price of a low-end RB2 at the end of the 5th or beginning of the 6th round.


The best part: he operates as a standalone weekly RB2 option but would immediately become a top-10 (and likely top-5) fantasy RB should Jahmyr Gibbs (who has dealt with a hamstring injury this preseason) miss time to any injury.

 
Zach's "My Guys"

1. Drake London (WR - Atlanta Falcons):

Change is generally something that makes me hesitate regarding a fantasy WR’s projections, but for London, it’s all been change for the better heading into 2024. Those quarterbacks who were delivering a catchable ball just 73% of the time to London in 2023? They’re out of the picture; Desmond Ridder is off to a much more suitable backup job in Arizona, while Taylor Heinicke is buried behind not just one high-quality starter in Kirk Cousins, but also another promising rookie QB in Michael Penix. There’s layers of defense standing between London and bottom-of-the-barrel QB play this year, which should be a breath of fresh air for both him and his fantasy managers. And of course, the god-awful fantasy football grinch who is Arthur Smith is out and replaced by an offensive mind in Zac Robinson, who’s a chip off the Sean McVay tree. McVay’s offenses know a thing or two about churning out productive fantasy receivers, too: they’ve had a wide receiver finish inside the top-12 in all but two seasons since McVay took the reigns in LA (the first was in 2017, McVay’s rookie season as HC and again in 2022 when Cooper Kupp started just 9 games). Bringing Robinson over to head up the Falcons’ passing game with Cousins under center is an instant and dramatic upgrade over the run-heavy schemes of Arthur Smith. But it’s not just a vastly improved situation that has me bullish on London this season…


Take a look at the production he’s had already and the player he is, and you’ll find that much like his draft classmate Garrett Wilson, he’s just a solid starting QB away from reaching that next level… and he’s got his QB. Of course, London isn’t exactly a statistical darling – his 1.98 yards per route run (34th) and 0.098 first downs per route run (29th) don’t measure up with the league’s best in an apples-to-apples comparison. But in the context of his dismal environment for the first two years of his career, those numbers become quite admirable. Consider also that he demanded a 32% air yards share and 22% target share, plus 0.24 targets per route run in 2023, and suddenly the picture we’re painting becomes a bit brighter. Not only that, but PFF marked London at a very good 78.9 receiving grade in 2023, a year after grading out as a top-12 overall WR the year before as a rookie (85.3). London also just happens to be entering Year 3, a season that statistically has seen the greatest number of fantasy breakouts of all the years of a wide receiver’s career. His price in the early to mid-2nd is steep, but it’s one I’m willing to pay for top-5 upside in Atlanta.


2. Jake Ferguson (TE - Dallas Cowboys):

The Cowboys are telegraphing it at this point to the rest of the league: their plans on offense start and end with the passing game, and fantasy managers (including myself) can’t be more thankful and excited. Ferguson was the only other Cowboys pass catcher besides Ceedee Lamb to cross the century mark in targets in 2023, which happened despite the now third-year tight end not playing a full complement of snaps to begin the season. Also working against his ability to earn opportunities last year was a serviceable ground game, something that no longer exists with Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle heading up perhaps the worst RB room in the league on paper. Unlike Drake London, Ferguson’s situation has changed this past offseason only slightly, but in a positive way nonetheless.


There’s nothing wrong with Brandin Cooks as the Cowboys’ WR2, but he’s a distant third target in the Cowboys passing offense behind No. 1 Ceedee Lamb (who’s in his own stratosphere) and No. 2 Jake Ferguson. Cooks did have 8 touchdowns of his own to Ferguson’s 5, but it took a degree of hyper-efficiency from the Cooks to remain fantasy-relevant; he did that on just 54 catches, and his 15% TD rate was third behind only Mike Evans and Courtland Sutton among wide receivers with 50 or more receptions in 2023. Meanwhile, Ferguson led all tight ends in red zone and end zone targets last year. With negative touchdown regression likely in the cards for Cooks and a potential positive regression for Ferguson on the horizon, it’s not farfetched to say that Ferguson’s ceiling has yet to be scratched – and with an overall TE9 finish under his belt already, that ceiling very well may be inside the top-5. Dak has supported a Cowboys TE to a top-3 finish before (Dalton Schultz back in 2021), and in an offense with fewer mouths to feed and a complementary-at-best ground game, I’ve found myself reaching to get Ferguson on as many teams as I can for 2024.


3. Kyler Murray (QB - Arizona Cardinals):

Kyler Murray is the easiest pick for me at quarterback in drafts where I take him because of his mega-deflated price and his upside in a Cardinals offense that’s suddenly chock-full of weapons at his disposal. James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Trey McBride could realistically be one of the top RB-WR-TE trios in football this season, while Trey Benson, Zay Jones, Greg Dortch, and Michael Wilson round out the skill positions with experience and talent to keep things afloat for Murray should any of their top three weapons go down. It’s quietly one of the better collections of talent on paper in the NFL, and with Murray now a year removed from his ACL tear, he should be back to firing on all cylinders in the best offense he’s had since his healthier days as a perennial fantasy QB1 to begin his career.


The X-factor for Murray’s production this season is just how much rushing he’ll be doing, and I’m willing to take the chance on Murray at his price given what we saw last season in his return from injury. Despite the fact that he was fresh off a torn ACL, Murray averaged 30 rush yards per game in eight games last year to go along with three touchdowns on the ground. If those numbers come up at all this season (which isn’t unfathomable) to complement what should be more efficiency in the passing game, Murray could realistically crack the top-5 in 2024 – a feat that other QBs coming off the board around him don’t necessarily stand to achieve. Murray has also either notched or been on pace for at least 80 rush attempts, 400 yards, and 5 touchdowns on the ground in every year of his career regardless of injury, giving him a very comfortable floor to go along with astronomical upside in the Cardinals offense this year

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