Faraz and Zach put their heads together to bring you their top takeaways from the 2024 fantasy season!
Draft QBs and RBs on Good Teams
This includes quarterbacks and running backs on good offenses that you think are going to score a lot of points. All ten of this year’s top-10 QBs in points per game came from offenses that ranked top-15 in scoring, and 9 out of this year’s top-10 running backs came from offenses that had top-15 Vegas implied scoring totals coming into the season. It sounds like an obvious point, but as we’ve seen, a rising tide lifts all boats.
Take Your Shot at Rushing QBs, Even Rookies.
Conversely, don’t spend a high draft pick on a non-rushing quarterback. The upside for rushing quarterbacks is inherently higher with one rushing yard being worth 2.5x as much as one passing yard, and rush touchdowns being worth 1.5x as much as a passing touchdown. Jayden Daniels finished as the QB5 with 864 yards and six touchdowns on the ground despite throwing for fewer yards than C.J. Stroud (a non-rushing QB whose ADP was, ironically, the QB5 in drafts).
Surprise, Surprise: Target Ambiguous Backfields
If we sound like a broken record, it’s because this is where the value is and always has been in fantasy drafts. Draft running backs late who will get a crack at some opportunity - you will have to hit, of course, but take your shots. All of these guys finished top-24 in PPR points/game:
Chase Brown
Chuba Hubbard
Bucky Irving
J.K. Dobbins
Tony Pollard
Rico Dowdle
Don’t Draft questionable talent in the mid-rounds.
We’re looking at you, Zamir White. Of course, in the Raiders’ case, it was already a relatively ambiguous situation to begin with; however, we knew that Zamir White didn’t stand out statistically or on the field in any way besides being Antonio Pierce’s guy. Don’t take the bait on JAGs who aren’t guaranteed a role in the middle of your draft, and instead shoot for upside.
WR talent almost always trumps QB situation.
Sam Darnold ended up playing well, so Justin Jefferson surviving year one of life after Kirk Cousins was understandable. But Malik Nabers is a landmark case in why we should trust talent over circumstance – he hit the ground running as an elite target earner and finished as a top-6 WR in points per game with Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, and Tommy Devito under center – as a rookie. Drake London also played well despite a surprisingly bad QB situation.
Efficiency will catch up with you eventually. (Efficiency isn’t the cure-all – volume is.)
Players who were uber-efficient one year need extra opportunity the following year to keep up with the production (i.e. they can’t live by efficiency alone forever; they’ll die by it, too). There will be a regression. The good news is that coaches tend to notice these things and reward players with more touches the following year. De’Von Achane is a great example of this system in action. When it doesn’t happen, efficiency won’t save you - Jayden Reed and Jaylen Warren are examples of that.
Don’t draft a rookie WR in the first round - when you have other options.
Marvin Harrison had a solid season – but he fell way short of his WR9 (16th overall) ADP. This isn’t to say that we shouldn’t be drafting rookie WRs when the talent warrants it – but in the first round, there’s almost always going to be another option. Drafts are rarely won in the first round but can be lost there, and as good as rookie receivers can be (Nabers, BTJ, Ja’Marr), a true WR1 fantasy season out of them in their first year is a big roll of the dice with your top selection.
Look beyond the box score when evaluating players.
It’s easy to get caught up in advanced stats and box scores when it comes to comparing two players – Nico Collins and Tank Dell, for example. But it’s also important to study film and understand which player is going to be able to do more, in this case, as a true fantasy WR1 (who is the alpha). Collins’ skillset matched that of a No. 1 WR much more than Dell’s, and understanding that difference allowed those who drafted Collins to get him not only at a bargain but with the assurance that Collins would produce regardless of the type of season Tank Dell had.
Take fliers on low-cost, high-upside rookie talents.
All five of Jayden Daniels (QB5), Malik Nabers (WR6), Brian Thomas Jr. (WR12), Ladd McConkey (WR21), and Brock Bowers (TE2) were selected outside the first four rounds of drafts. The risk associated with rookies is obviously greater than the risk of taking a proven producer in the early rounds of your draft, but drafting rookies – especially unicorns like Bowers or standout athletes like BTJ – is one of the best ways to inject your roster with upside in the mid-late rounds.
Let efficiency be your guide in seemingly crowded backfields.
There’s a reason we liked Bucky Irving in Tampa even with Rachaad White sharing the backfield – and it’s because he demonstrated efficiency in the run game in college when White did not (in college or the NFL). And it goes both ways – just like new faces can usurp opportunity from incumbents in a backfield, so can the incumbents hold off competition by showing efficiency themselves (Kyren Williams, James Conner, etc.). More often than not, the best players in the backfield will earn the work – and that’s where value can be created.
Don’t draft players who will rot on IR all year.
Seems like a no-brainer, but there are players every year that get heavily discounted to the point where the potential reward seems to outweigh the risk. Most of the time, though, that’s fool’s gold you’re being sold; Nick Chubb, T.J. Hockenson, and Jonathon Brooks are prime examples this year (and Kyler Murray last year). Your IR spot will be better served housing bigger names who need to miss a week or two instead of being clogged up by a player who won’t scratch the surface of their capabilities in limited action late in the year.
Get your running backs early.
You can play the game trying to extract value out of the RB dead zone later in the draft, but you better be perfect – otherwise, you’ll be at a huge positional disadvantage and be a permanent resident on waiver wire street. All 12 of this year’s top-12 running backs were taken in the first four rounds of drafts, too, so keep that in mind when the voices are telling you to execute the next great zero-RB build.
Don’t miss out on huge fantasy seasons by being scared of injuries.
One of the most obvious pieces of advice that bears repeating every year. There are bad draft decisions like drafting C.J. Stroud in the 4th round and expecting him to return value on that investment as a pocket passer – that’s totally in your control as a fantasy football manager. Injuries, however, aren’t – and if you predicate your draft choices on the chance that a player could get hurt, you could miss out on seasons like Saquon Barkley and De’Von Achane just had. Injuries are unpredictable, so instead of treating a player as one that might get hurt, consider the upside if the player were to stay healthy. A player who’s already hurt when you’re drafting them? That’s a different story.
The quality of a college prospect plays a significant role
It’s no coincidence that the top three running backs this year (Saquon, Bijan, and Jahmyr) were all amazing prospects coming out of college. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, too, was a great example this season of betting on the talent, even after an underwhelming rookie season. Bearing that in mind, we should continue to buy into guys like Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, and even Breece Hall after a down year – the talent doesn’t disappear overnight, and sometimes it can take a little time before we start seeing that talent pop up on the stat sheet.
Pay attention to late-year breakout signs for receivers
Remember Amon-Ra St. Brown’s run at the end of his rookie year when he flashed the ability to be a target magnet? Or how about at the end of 2023 with Trey McBride and Rashee Rice both dominating their teams’ target shares down the stretch? When these green flags pop up for receivers, it’s important to keep them in mind for the next draft. Jalen McMillan got it done over the last few weeks of this year, but his production was a bit more touchdown-dependent than volume-based like Amon-Ra and Trey McBride did. He’ll be worth keeping an eye on this offseason, though.