Breece Hall - RB11, 21.5 (3rd round)

Breece Hall has overall RB1 upside. But depending on a RB to get to RB1 levels the year after and ACL injury is a tough one for me - we typically see a dip in efficiency from these players in year 1, and in turn a dip in fantasy points, as well. But you have a guy like Breece Hall who is extremely athletic and very young and that profiles as the type of player to buck the trend. If he does, then he has overall RB1 upside - but for a RB1 to have that type of upside less than a year removed from an ACL tear, I’m not sure the chances for that are too high.

That being said, Breece Hall is the type of player who had such an amazing Year 1 before he got hurt that he would be a clear Top-5 fantasy RB going into this season if he didn’t get hurt.

Jahmyr Gibbs - RB14, 40.4 (4th round)

I think Gibbs’ price tag is appropriate as the RB14 off the board - you can g grab him in the 4th right now on Underdog, but in home leagues, it seems like he might end up being a 3rd round pick, especially in PPR… and I’m really targeting him in full PPR and half PPR leagues. There is a legit chance he sees 80 catches this year.

D’Andre Swift was on pace for 80 catches in 2021, and last year, with the change at OC to Ben Johnson, D’Andre Swift was actually targeted at a higher rate per route run than when he was on pace for 80 catches in 2021.

So now that the Lions actually have a version of D’Andre Swift that they like, a RB who’s extremely explosive, that has ridiculous speed, and was one of the best pass catching prospects to come out over the last 10 years.

Gibbs was up there with guys like McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara - who by the way, both finished as RB1s in PPR FPPG in their rookies years without a goal line role, with another early down back complementing them… just like Gibbs has Montgomery.

There’s a good chance Gibbs finishes as a RB1 and he’s being drafted outside the Top-12 right now.

Brandon Aiyuk - WR28, 51.2 (5th round)

If there was going to be a breakout WR this year, Brandon Aiyuk could be that guy. And I’m not talking 1200 yards and 7 TDs… I’m talking 1400 yards and 10 TDs… it can happen with Brandon Aiyuk. I think he’s a value, and I’m gonna say it, I think he has WR1 upside.

Now, his offense has so many skill players… almost too many, to be honest. But my hope is that he finally gets utilized the way that any other team in the league would utilize him - and that’s by giving him 140 targets. He was on pace for a 1000 yard season in 2020 as a rookie and he didn’t even play the entire year! He was in Kyle Shanahan’s dog house in 2021, and in the games he played a full snap share that year, he was on pace for 1100 yards, and then had his 78 catch-1000 yard season last year despite the QB carousel they had going on.

It looks like Brock Purdy is going to be the guy, and there was no one that Brock Purdy targeted more than Brandon Aiyuk last year (24% target share). The dude’s being drafted outside the WR2 range, and I just don’t really see a world where his floor is lower than that WR24 spot, and I do think he has WR1 upside if Shanahan treats him like that true X alpha WR that he’s fed in past offenses.

But as I say that, I realize that you gotta get the ball in CMC’s hands, Deebo’s hands, Kittle’s hands… so there is a limiting factor here, but there is a world where Aiyuk gets 140 targets because he’s that good of a WR and a separator, and if that happens, we’re talking high-end WR2 territory.