In our “32 in 32” series, we are highlighting three of the most notable fantasy football players for each team, covering all 32 teams in 32 days!
Jalen Hurts (QB – Philadelphia Eagles):
Hurts was already an established runner, contributing towards his top-10 finish in 2021 with over 780 yards and 10 TDs on the ground, but ultimately struggling in the passing game, which held him back from fantasy stardom.
That completely changed in 2022 as he, like many other QBs, took off once receiving a true WR1 (A.J. Brown). Hurts threw for over 3,700 yards with a 22-6 TD-INT ratio, plus added another 760 yards and 13 TDs on the ground, ending the year as the QB3 in points and the top QB in fantasy in PPG.
Outside of one uncharacteristically down game in Week 18, Hurts was exceptional, posting 16+ points in all other games, posting 20+ points in 12/15 weeks, and eclipsing 24+ points in two-thirds of his games.
Between a strong weekly floor due to his rushing abilities, an elite WR duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and his progression as a passer, Hurts is pushing as a borderline elite fantasy QB, but that comes with a price.
Going as the QB3 on draft day (behind Mahomes and Allen), Hurts is commanding an early-4th round price tag. I love the prospects Hurts offers, especially as a runner, but that price seems a bit rich. If he falls a bit, possibly into the 5th round, I would strongly consider him, but outside that, I will likely favor a more value-sensitive option, even with Hurts’ potential to finish as the top QB in fantasy.
D’Andre Swift (RB – Philadelphia Eagles):
2022 was a very conflicting season for D’Andre Swift.
It was an overall underwhelming season for him with 931 total yards and 8 TDs, finishing as the RB21 in points, but the overall numbers don’t truly tell the story of Swift’s season.
In reality, Swift was one of the best RBs last year when he got the chance, ranking 4th among RBs with 100+ touches at 5.5 YPC and ranking 2nd among top-40 RBs with 1.300 FPPT.
The issue was, he rarely got the opportunity in what was a pure committee in Detroit. Whether he was sidelined due to injury, active but “limited” due to a lingering injury, or simply not receiving the ball due to a ‘hot hand’ approach, Swift registered just 147 touches in 2022 – 39th among RBs.
The move to Philadelphia introduces a ton of potential in an elite rushing offense, but there’s arguably even less security for Swift in Philly than in Detroit. He’ll likely see an expanded rushing role with limited competition in Philadelphia (Rashaad Penny being his top competitor), but the greater issue is his receiving role. His receiving production was a major driving factor for his success in Detroit, but with Philadelphia’s lack of RB utilization in the passing game (61 targets to RBs, 12.1% target share – both lowest in the NFL), there’s no certainty on what workload he’ll get through that avenue.
Will Philadelphia alter its offensive scheme to likely stimulate Swift’s receiving workload? Likely so,i but how much will Hurts’ rushing abilities continue to limit RB opportunities in the passing game? That’s the lingering question.
I love the potential for Swift as one of the most talented RBs in the NFL playing in one of the elite offenses in the NFL, but I am very likely to pass on him at his current low-RB2/very high-RB3 price tag in the 5th/6th round. At that point (relative to the position), he’s too big of a boom-or-bust RB compared to alternative options and their comparable ceilings.
A.J. Brown (WR – Philadelphia Eagles):
There was a lot of uncertainty for A.J. Brown heading into 2022 with the lack of production from Jalen Hurts as a passer as well as a rather notable history of inconsistencies and injuries from Brown in Tennessee.
That was quickly dismissed as Jalen Hurts saw a massive step forward as a passer and Brown was the primary beneficiary.
In his first season with Philadelphia, Brown saw career-highs in every category, drawing 146 targets (8th), 88 catches (11th), 1496 yards (4th), and 11 TDs (2nd) along the way to finishing as the WR6 in fantasy.
While Brown’s significant role in the offense garnered a 27.2% target share (6th), I have notable concerns on whether that is feasible in 2023 between the lack of passing volume in Philadelphia (50.3% pass plays, 4th fewest), a fully-healthy Dallas Goedert, and the addition of elite pass-catching RB D’Andre Swift.
Do I think he takes a step back from his career year in 2022? Yes.
Do I think he’s still a low-end WR1? Yes.
Does he have the ability to finish as a top-5 WR? Absolutely.
Am I willing to pay his draft price of a mid-2nd rounder? Unlikely.