Joe Burrow vs DAL
Still allowing the fifth most fantasy points per game over the course of the season and the fourth-most points per game over the last four. The Bengals also have the third-highest implied total of the week at 27.5.
Burrow is obviously having a fantastic season – 30 touchdowns to just five interceptions, and he’s scored at least 29 fantasy points in three of his last four games and at least 20 in all of his past four. The 15:2 TD-to-INT ratio never hurts, either… and the Bengals' defense being complete ass also gives him arguably the best game script of any player in fantasy. He’s a high-end QB1.
Baker Mayfield vs LV
Mayfield didn’t come through as well as we hoped he would last week, but he gets another solid matchup against the Raiders – allowing the third-most pass touchdowns per game this year, along with the 7th-most fantasy points per game and the 6th-most over the past four weeks. The Bucs also have the 5th-highest implied total on the week.
The Bucs offense has run through the running backs as of late (see Bucky Irving’s breakout), but Mike Evans isn’t going to get to 1000 yards on the season on his own. Mayfield is still attempting over 30 passes per game and is a strong QB1 start.
Tony Pollard vs JAX
Jacksonville is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game, fifth-most rush touchdowns per game, and 8th-highest yards per carry in the league this year. The Jaguars are also one of the defenses most susceptible to running backs in the receiving game, allowing the fourth-most receptions and third-most receiving yards per game to running backs.
Tyjae Spears hardly has a role alongside Pollard, and it’s a clear RB1 and RB2 situation in Tennessee at the moment. Pollard handled 75% of the carries and had an 18% target share in the Titans offense last week, and the game script should be much more favorable against Jacksonville. Ideally, the Titans aren’t down 28-0 in the first quarter this week, which could lead to another high-volume game for Pollard. He’s a fringe RB1 this week.
Chase Brown vs DAL
The second-best matchup for the week besides Saquon Barkley. Dallas is allowing the 2nd-most rushing touchdowns and 6th-most fantasy points per game to running backs this year, and the Bengals have a 27.5-point implied total. Again, everyone is going to be scoring in this one if this follows the same script as other Bengals games this season – Dallas has also been horrific on defense at home.
Chase Brown has also ripped off four straight top-10 finishes at the position thanks to one of the league’s best RB roles for fantasy. He’s averaging 25 touches per game since Zack Moss went down with injury, including just under 7 targets per game in that span.