Despite allowing the 6th-most PPG to opposing RBs in 2023, including the 4th most rushing yards, Alvin Kamara has mightily struggled against the Panthers as of late, posting 13.5 points in his lone game against Carolina in 2023 and 10.9 PPG vs them over the last 2 years (compared to 16.5 PPG vs all other opponents). A large reason is that Carolina does not give up much to RBs in the receiving game, having allowed the fewest receiving yards to RBs in 2023.

For an RB whose production relies on the receiving game (54.8% of his points in 2023), this isn't an ideal matchup, especially with a likely game script that will feature the likes of Jamaal Williams and Taysom Hill seeing expanded roles on the ground.

He's still a fringe-RB2 option for me this week, and by no means should you bench Kamara, but you should temper expectations.

Matthew Stafford gets his first regular season game against his former team, the Detroit Lions, in Week 1 - a team he exploded against with 367 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs in a Wild Card Round playoff loss last season.

Everything indicates another monster game for Stafford (or at least the opportunity for it). Last year, the Lions allowed the 4th-most PPG to opposing QBs, including eleven top-12 and nine top-10 weekly QB finishes, both of which were the 2nd-most in the NFL. Add on the Rams sitting with a juicy 24 implied points (9th) plus a game over/under of 51.5 points (highest this week) and you're looking at a potential barnburner in the opening week.

I'm comfortable playing Stafford as a low-end QB1/high-QB2 or as a dart-throw QB if you are looking for a high-upside option if you need a 'home run' to overcome a stronger opponent roster.

When the weather is good and he's fresh, Tua Tagovailoa is among the best QBs in the NFL and in fantasy. Through his first 8 full games each of the last three seasons, he has been excellent as the QB5 in points (19.2 PPG), the QB8 in PPG (21.7 PPG), and the QB12 in PPG (17.3 PPG) respectively. It then drops off later in the season and after he wears down a bit: QB20 (13.0 PPG), QB21 (13.7 PPG), QB29 (10.1 PPG).

He draws a favorable matchup against the Jaguars defense that allowed the 7th-most fantasy PPG to opposing QBs last year. Fire him up as a mid-to-low QB1 this week.

Look away David Njoku and Jake Ferguson owners... Both the Browns and Cowboys are nightmare matchups for opposing TEs.

Cleveland allowed the fewest PPG (9.2 PPGA) and just four top-12 finishes to opposing TEs while Dallas allowed the 5th-fewest PPG (10.1 PPGA) and just three top-12 finishes to opposing TEs, the fewest in the NFL.

Ferguson is the more secure option by virtue of an established rapport with his QB, but neither Feguson or Njoku feel an overly comfortable option in Week 1 in this matchup that doesn't bode well for either on paper. If you have a better (or at least safer) option at TE, I'd at least consider the swap (especially if debating over Njoku), otherwise just temper the expectations for these two.

This is not a favorable situation for Zay Flowers to open up the season:

• Kansas City allowed the 3rd-fewest PPG to opposing WRs in 2023, including just 6 games allowing a 15+ point WR in PPR scoring.

• In games with Mark Andrews, Flowers was the WR21 in points and the WR11 in PPG (10.2). In games without Mark Andrews, Flowers was the WR36 in points and the WR50 in PPG (17.4).

• Baltimore isn't expected to come out 'guns blazing' offensively, featuring an implied total of 21.8 points (19th).

I'm shying away from Flowers as a WR2 option this week unless another quality option isn't available. Of course, if you're playing him this week, make sure he's in your WR spot, not your FLEX (as he plays on TNF)!