1. Mark Andrews Has a History of Struggling vs KC, Then Rebounding Big
Steve Spagnuolo and the Kansas City Chiefs have had one very clear plan to stop the Baltimore Ravens whenever they have played: Scheme Mark Andrews out of the game
Throughout Andrews' entire career, he's played the Chiefs six times and has struggled every time:
And every time, he's rebounded in a major way as a top-6 TE the week after his game vs the Chiefs (except his rookie year in 2018):
He's now another week removed from his preseason car accident and away from a very niche defensive scheme while drawing a Raiders' defense that allowed top-12 targets and receptions to opposing TEs in 2023. Don't think twice about putting Andrews into your lineup.
2. If There's a Game for the Falcons' Passing Offense to Get Going, It's Week 2
Kirk Cousins and the Falcons' passing offense struggled mightily in Week 1 vs the Steelers, posting just 155 yards (6th-lowest), a TD, and 2 INTs, featuring a QB31 finish for Kirk Cousins (6.2 points) and a WR81 finish for Drake London (3.5 points).
The good news is they get to play the Philadelphia Eagles defense that allowed the:
3rd-most points in 2023
2nd-most passing yards in 2023
3rd-most passing TDs in 2023
Most fantasy points to opposing QBs in 2023 (20.6)
Most fantasy points to opposing WRs in 2023 (42.8)
11th-most targets to opposing RBs in 2023 (107)
3rd-most fantasy points to opposing WRs in Week 1 (52.4)
It may not be the most appealing matchup for Kyle Pitts (PHI allowed the 15th-most PPG to TEs in 2023), but it is the perfect opportunity for Kirk Cousins, Drake London, and the rest of the passing offense to get back on the track that they had anticipated for 2024.
3. Jameson Williams Emerging As A Primary Target in Detroit?
Williams was one of the biggest surprises in Week 1, finishing as the WR5 on the week, and not because of his typical big-play nature but rather a consistent involvement in the Lions' offense. He finished with a team-high 9 targets and 5 catches on an 85% snap share, a 32% target share, and a stunning 94% route participation - all figures that haven't historically been there for Williams.
Tampa's Week 1 opponent (Washington) doesn't give us a true look at what to expect from opposing WRs due to Jayden Daniels' rushing tendency in his NFL debut, but Tampa did allow top-10 fantasy points and the 4th-most yards to WRs in 2023. Williams should be matching up primarily against Jamel Dean (116.0 passer rating in 2023) and Christian Izien (104.8 passer rating in 2023), which could present another enticing performance.
The opportunity is very much there for Williams to have another strong performance after a monster Week 1, potentially setting the tone as a primary target for the Lions and a solid fantasy option for the remainder of 2024.
4. Be Cautious About D.K. Metcalf in Week 2 vs Patriots
Last week Metcalf got shut down by Patrick Surtain, drawing just 3 catches (on 4 targets) for 29 yards as the WR62 on the week. This week, he gets Christian Gonzalez, who shadowed Ja'Marr Chase for 90% of his routes and allowed just 25 yards when he was in coverage.
It doesn't make things much better with bottom-half numbers allowed by the Patriots' defense in fantasy points, yards, and TDs to opposing WRs last season in what appears to be an even better unit than in 2023.
Metcalf's 16% target share from Week 1 likely may be comparable to what he sees in Week 2 against the Pats, who played primarily two-high defense (54.3%, 9th-highest) last week - a defense Metcalf struggled mightily to get targets against last year (14.9% target share).
I'm high on Metcalf over the entirety of the season, but very cautious with Metcalf this week, leaving him as a borderline WR2/FLEX option that will be boom-or-bust and likely need a TD to be a notable producer against New England.
5. George Pickens May Be a Trap Play vs Patrick Surtain, Denver Broncos
Pickens got off to a solid start to the 2024 season last week with a 6-85-0 stat line (WR24) on a strong 30.4% target share, but it is worth noting that 68.9% of his points came on two deep shots. With Justin Fields at QB, the Steelers are a run-first offense, leaving quite a bit of uncertainty for overall volume (not target share) for Pickens on a week-to-week basis - some weeks you'll have the deep passes connect (i.e. Week 1) but just as frequently, he will likely underwhelm.
Week 2 gives me a lot of hesitation to play Pickens when I have decent other options, especially with him likely to draw a matchup against Patrick Surtain, who shadowed D.K. Metcalf last week and gave up just 29 yards (WR62 on the week). The game script likely won't play any favors either - the Steelers have an implied 19.5 points (8th-fewest) in a game that features the lowest Over/Under (36.5) this week.
Pickens looks to be a major boom-or-bust WR for this week with a solid performance likely being dependent on a big play on Patrick Surtain. I don't know about you, but that's not something I'd bet on more often than not. Be a bit hesitant putting Pickens in your lineup this week, especially as anything more than a low-end WR3/FLEX option.