Back to Reality for J.K. Dobbins? The Signs Say Yes.
Through two weeks, J.K. Dobbins may be the biggest surprise in fantasy so far, leading the league with 266 rushing yards as the RB4 in fantasy. It's less a surprise of the production as the volume and efficiency that he has done it with, drawing just 27 carries (21st) but hitting an absurd 9.9 YPC (1st).
The issue with that production is the efficiency is unsustainable, especially seeing as he sits as the RB31 in Expected Points per Game (10.9) - the largest gap between actual production and expected production in fantasy football this season. A correction to more anticipated production and efficiency will naturally happen, even with a likely increase in involvement in the Chargers' offense, but this correction may come sooner rather than later.
Dobbins draws a tough matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers this week, who have allowed the 7th-fewest PPG and YPC to opposing RBs this season, including just 3.8 YPC to Bijan Robinson in Week 1 and 1.5 YPC to Javonte Williams in Week 2.
His monster two weeks to open up the season has garnered him a starting spot in many fantasy teams' starting lineups, but his production may be a trap heading into Week 3 as anything more than a high-upside RB3/FLEX.
'Get Right' Game Likely for Joe Burrow vs Washington Commanders
Joe Burrow hasn't been his usual self the first two weeks of the season, tallying 422 passing yards and 2 TDs as the QB14 thus far, but failing to finish as a top-8 QB in either week to start 2024.
The good news is that his luck appears likely to change as he may get WR Tee Higgins (hamstring) back this week and the Bengals draw a very favorable matchup against a porous Washington defense.
Through the first two weeks, Washington has allowed 518 yards, 6 TDs, and 0 INTs to opposing QBs - the most fantasy PPG to QBs this season, including a 30-point performance from Baker Mayfield in Week 1 (QB2) and an 18-point performance from Daniel Jones, yes you read that right, in Week 2 (QB6).
Fire Burrow up in your lineups regardless of Tee Higgins' status in what likely should be a top-10 finish this week with the potential to be in the top-5 or even better.
Pivotal Game for Kyle Pitts' 2024 - Matchup Says Boom, Public Opinion Says Bust
The general public consensus on Kyle Pitts has seemed overwhelmingly negative despite finishing as a top-12 TE for fantasy in 2 of his first 3 seasons in the NFL with many feeling the production has not met the hype for the highest-drafted (and highest-touted) TE prospect in NFL history.
Week 1 saw Pitts be one of very few started TEs to produce, finishing as the TE4 with 11.6 points, but the opposite came in Week 2 with Pitts tallying just 3 catches for 20 yards as the TE21 in PPR scoring.
Week 3 brings a crucial game for Pitts who hasn't seen the volume (7 targets) many anticipated and had hoped for this offseason but has managed to stay afloat in a struggling TE position despite Atlanta's stagnant offense. He draws a very favorable on-paper matchup against the Chiefs, who have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing TEs and have been torched by athletic TEs each of the first two weeks of the season, giving up over 26 points to Isaiah Likely (TE1) and over 16 points to Mike Gesicki (TE4) so far this year.
Pitts should be started in most situations but, as is the case with many other Pitts' owners, I am on edge to see whether we get the highly-touted Pitts or the underwhelming one as this week likely will set the tone for the remainder of the season.
Brenton Strange Could Be a Sneaky Option if Desperate at TE This Week
In one of the bigger surprises last week, Jaguars' TE Evan Engram was a late inactive after suffering a hamstring injury in warmups, paving the way for Brenton Strange's first career start. Strange, while not a household name, is no slouch, being drafted as a highly-touted (and highly-athletic) TE in the 2nd round of the 2023 NFL Draft out of Penn State.
His first career start against the Browns went rather well last week, drawing a team-high 3 catches on 6 targets (2nd on the team) for 65 yards en route to a top-10 TE finish on the week. Perhaps as significant is his incredible 17.0 aDOT this season, which leads all TEs with multiple targets.
He won't be Evan Engram, but he could be a very enticing spot-start as he draws a matchup against the Buffalo Bills, who have allowed the 6th-most points to opposing TEs, including top-10 finishes to Trey McBride and Jonnu Smith in the first two weeks of the season.
Early-Season Struggles May Get Worse for Terry McLaurin in Week 3
It has been a very rough start to the 2024 season for Terry McLaurin, who has garnered 12 targets, 8 catches, and a 22.6% target share through the first two weeks, but has only mustered 39 yards and 11.9 fantasy points on that volume.
The issue for him is that he has seen 67% of his targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, amounting to an aDOT of 9.2 (102nd) that is even inflated by a deep 40+ yard miss in Week 1. This is a result of Jayden Daniels featuring the 2nd-lowest aDOT (4.7) and the 4th-lowest rate of deep throws (5.7%) among starting QBs - a major surprise given Daniels' tendency to not only throw but hit on deep balls at an elite rate in college.
Unfortunately, the odds of a market correction don't appear favorable in Week 3 with Washington drawing an unfavorable matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, who have allowed the 7th-fewest points to opposing WRs and the 2nd-lowest aDOT (5.3) in the NFL through the first two weeks.
I do still believe McLaurin sees a market correction back to somewhat normal tendencies for him (career aDOT of 11.97) and think he will end up as a season-long WR2/3 option, but I don't have the confidence in him to put him in my lineup this week.