Deebo Samuel - WR16 on Sleeper (3-4 Turn)
Samuel averaged 11 PPR fantasy points/game last year after CMC joined the team. Now, he was banged up for some time, so that number isn’t necessarily a fault of his. And he’s going to have his games - before CMC joined, 15.2 fantasy points/game. A lot more doable. But a lot of those short targets he was getting are going to go to McCaffrey now like we saw happen last year! They just have way too many mouths to feed in San Francisco. Deebo has the ability to take any catch to the house, and he a solid 22% target share last year, but if Aiyuk takes a step forward, and you have Kittle and McCaffrey knowing the offense more, it’s really hard for me to bet on Deebo coming through on his WR16 price tag.
He’s not being targeted downfield at all, only 15% air yards share - WR3s average 27% on average according to Fantasy Life data profiles. WR3s!! So we’re really depending very heavily on his after the catch ability and the fact that he gets some extra carries as well… but with CMC and Elijah Mitchell not sure Deebo is getting those money touches as much as he did two seasons ago is something I want to bet on.
Jaylen Waddle - WR11 on Sleeper (Late-2nd Round)
I haven’t drafted a whole lot of Jaylen Waddle at his price, and there are a few reasons for that. He’s an extremely dynamic player, and you can point to the fact that he over performed with his opportunity because he’s so good - but there’s also a chance that if that opportunity doesn’t come up, that he regresses a bit.
Among all the top WRs last year, he had highest differential in expected fantasy points vs actual fantasy points. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown also outperformed, but they’re also getting a much higher target share than Waddle (just a 20% target share last year). He’s being drafted as a low-end WR1 or borderline WR1, but we know that true fantasy WR1s can’t sustain that expected fantasy production with only a 20% target share.
Plus, we know that Tyreek is going to eat first in that passing offense. He was up at 28% target share alongside Davante Adams - tied for tops in the league. And according to Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life, those two underlying metrics for Waddle are more in line with WR2 and WR3 numbers. He outperformed his opportunity because he’s a baller, but it might not be sustainable. Its possible that you’re drafting him as the WR11 but he ends up finishing as the WR18.
In Weeks 7-16 with Tua playing last year, he only averaged 6.4 targets/game and 4.1 catches/game. It came with some good fantasy weeks, but damn, I can’t have my WR11 off the board having such limited opportunity.