Let’s talk about the Commanders backfield. You have Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler, and it’s almost certain that this is almost a timeshare - but which one should we target? You look at Ekeler’s ADP and you’re like man, RB38? Why not take the shot? He was a 1st round pick last year. Well, the market is saying he’s washed. And according the efficiency metrics, I’m afraid that is the case - at least in the run game. I’m expecting Brian Robinson Jr. to be THE guy on early downs, while Ekeler will still likely mix in for his receiving skills. I just don’t think that Ekeler will provide a whole lot of fantasy value in that type of limited role, with a rushing QB like Jayden Daniels who will be less likely to check it down than to tuck and run.
That being said, give me Brian Robinson at his RB33 price tag over Ekeler - he was very good after contact last year, he’ll have more open lanes with Jayden Daniels being a threat with his legs, and you have Kliff Kingsbury running a faster paced offense this year after them having one of the slowest offenses last year. Kingsbury’s Cardinals offenses were also consistently in the top-10 in rushing yards and TDs in his four years with the team from 2019-2022. Now, the reality is this offense is projected to be bottom-7 in overall scoring this year, so something will have to give, but I think we could see an offense that heavily relies on the legs of both Robinson and Jayden Daniels.