The Jaguars added Calvin Ridley to the roster for one season, and he earned 136 targets. Pretty solid… but now he’s gone to Tennessee in search of greener pastures. That’s a lot of vacated targets… so where exactly are all those targets going to go, and how distributed will they be?
Brian Thomas Jr was drafted there in the first round this past April, and they added Gabe Davis in free agency. They still have Christian Kirk, and don’t forget that Evan Engram led the entire team in targets last year with 140. It wouldn’t be on brand if I didn’t dismiss Gabe Davis off the bat, so let’s do that - he’s never been a target earner, and he won’t be one in Jacksonville with Thomas, Engram, and Kirk all fighting for looks from Lawrence.
Kirk is being drafted as the WR30 and Brian Thomas is being drafted as the WR42. First of all, I think Kirk is being severely underdrafted - he was the WR27 last year and that was with Ridley being a target hog. Yes, Brian Thomas will likely earn some targets as well, but I don’t think he’ll be getting that Calvin Ridley-type target share. Before Ridley got there, in 2022, Kirk was the WR20. He was a solid WR2 - and by the way, Zay Jones had 121 targets himself that year. Kirk’s role out of the slot isn’t changing, and especially in PPR leagues, Kirk is someone I will have a lot of this year. I can easily see him and Engram leading this team once again in target share.
That leads us to Brian Thomas Jr. Take a look at the ADPs of some of the 1st round rookies being drafted right now:
Marvin Harrison - WR9
Malik Nabers - WR18
Xavier Worthy - WR37
Rome Odunze - WR38
Brian Thomas Jr. is all the way down the board at WR42… and that’s not a bad price. My only issue is, you have McConkey at WR40 (who I’d rather have this year), you have Rashee at WR43 (who I’d rather have), and Diontae Johnson at WR44 (who I’d rather have, as well). I can make the case for Christian Watson over him, too – he’s going in that range. Because of the WRs going around him, I probably won’t have much of BTJ even though the price isn’t so bad for a role that will be there for him in year 1. The talent and upside he currently has is intriguing, but I’m not sure he’s necessarily earning target share over the veteran receivers on his team like Christian Kirk and Evan Engram.