Don’t be surprised if the Seahawks passing offense takes a big step forward in 2024. If you watch college football, you’re very aware of new Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb’s success at Washington, specifically in the passing game with 2023 first-round quarterback Michael Penix Jr. In each of his two years as Washington’s offensive coordinator, the Huskies were Top-2 in passing yards in the nation. He was set to be Alabama’s new OC, but he’s staying in state and making the jump to the pros.
One of second-year WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s gripes with former OC Shane Waldron was that he didn’t run enough 3-WR sets, resulting in JSN going over 80% route participation only 6 times in 2023. The good news for him: he won’t have to worry about that this year, as Grubb had 3 WRs on the field close to 80% of plays last year compared to 63% for Seattle last year.
Tyler Lockett will be 32 years old at the beginning of next season, and we’re already seeing a slight decline in his production and efficiency, so there’s a chance JSN moves past him into the more dependable vertical slot/flanker role this season. He’s currently the WR43 in Underdog drafts.
Either way, the Seahawks have the personnel to run Grubb’s offense. Geno Smith will run it to start, but I do find it interesting they brought in a young gun slinger in Sam Howell to offer some low-key competition. We saw Howell lead the league in pass attempts last season, which led to a top-12 finish in what was largely a dysfunctional Commanders offense.
More 3 WR sets, more passing volume - great for these WRs. But don’t forget about their primary tight end Noah Fant! (Hear me out on this one…) Seattle has been using 2-TE sets and have been distributing production among multiple guys. There is literally no one behind Fant, so a full-time route participation is very possible. He should be on your late round sleeper TE list.
DK Metcalf is an obvious winner of these changes as the team’s WR1, as well, so we could see him return to a stat line closer to his 83/1303/10 season in 2020. We might be drafting him close to his floor as the current WR22 off the board on Underdog.