Bryce Young vs TB
He had his best fantasy game as a pro last week against a relatively tough Cardinals defense, and he had his first game with three touchdowns and no turnovers. Now, he gets the Buccaneers, who are allowing the 4th-most passing yards, the 9th-most passing touchdowns, and the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. The game is tied for the second-highest total of the week at 49.5, and Young has been getting it done on the ground over the past few games – he has three rushing touchdowns in five games since the bye. He’s also the overall QB11 over the past five weeks, and with the Panthers playing competitive football, Young is a prime candidate to stream in the fantasy football championship.
Bo Nix vs CIN
Nix’s rushing production has fallen slightly off a cliff in the second half of the season – from Weeks 1-9, he averaged 32.7 rush yards per game and scored four touchdowns on the ground. Since Week 10, though, he’s averaged just 9.5 yards per game on the ground with no scores in that span. Luckily, he’s been able to be efficient as a passer and tossed two or more touchdowns in five of his past six starts. He has Cincinnati this week, who are a top-8 matchup in terms of pass yards, pass touchdowns, and fantasy points allowed per game this season, and the game is tied for the second-highest implied total on the week at 49.5. Nix has been a top-15 finisher in all but two games since Week 5, and he’s never been below 14 points in that span. He’s a low-end QB1 for me.
Pollard & Spears vs JAX
How will this backfield shake out? It’s anyone’s guess at this point, and it seems like the Titans might be dialing back Pollard’s workhorse role with nothing left to play for these last few games of the season – and with Tyjae Spears playing very well himself. Pollard has seen his two lowest snap shares of the season over the past two games while he deals with his ankle injury, and Spears has been up over 50% of snaps over the past two games. Both games have been blowouts, so there’s still technically a chance that Pollard could have that 15-20 carry upside if the game script would be competitive – but right now, Spears is playing better, is healthier, and has a role that’s suited to capitalize on the Jaguars shoddy defense. Jacksonville is allowing the 3rd-most receptions and 2nd-most receiving yards to running backs this season on top of the 2nd-most fantasy points per game this season, so Spears is likely the safer start at this point as a mid-low RB2 with upside. Pollard is more of a flex play that will need a touchdown to come through if the roles for these two running backs over the past two games hold.
Breece Hall vs BUF
Breece got back to his full workload last week, taking 80% of the snaps, 70% of the rush attempts, and posting a 73% route participation against the Rams. The matchup this week is great for Hall against the Bills, who give up the 2nd-most receptions and the most receiving yards per game to running backs this season on top of the 3rd-most fantasy points per game. He’s got his role back, the Jets could be chasing points with Buffalo favored by 9.5 – I like Breece as a fringe RB1 this weekend.