I think there are two obvious names at the top of the fantasy breakout radar - Anthony Richardson and CJ Stroud. These are the two guys everyone is calling for breaking out this year - Stroud had some of that his rookie year, was definitely on that trajectory, and now they’ve gone ahead and added Stefon Diggs to his arsenal. It’s official: the sky is now the limit for the Texans offense. I think he is 100% in line for a breakout (I think most people would agree with that), but the question I have is whether or not he should be drafted at his ADP?
According to Sleeper ADP, he’s going off the board as the QB5 – that’s ahead of Anthony Richardson in the 4th round. If you’re drafting CJ Stroud there, you’re drafting him because you believe he will give you a positional advantage over a typical QB1 - which means Stroud would need to average maybe around 22 fantasy points/game. After all, that’s typically what a Top-6 QB gives you. The biggest thing standing between him and those 22 points/game is that he’s not a rushing QB. To put things in perspective, just six non-mobile QBs have hit 22 fantasy points/game since 2000: Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Justin Herbert, and Matt Ryan (that one year).
That’s it - over the last 25 years.
Now don’t get it twisted – Stroud is definitely on a solid trajectory. He’s set up big time, and he’s going to have a great year - but we’re drafting him at his ceiling. The way you really get an advantage is if you draft a mobile QB early or another one late who hits, or a non-mobile QB you draft later with 30+ passing TD upside – like Stroud did last year, like Jordan Love did last year, like Brock Purdy did. The bottom line is that Stroud’s going off the board two picks after Lamar Jackson. That’s in the same range as Rachaad White, Cooper Kupp, Trey McBride, DeVonta Smith, James Cook, Joe Mixon, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid. I just can’t do it.
I think Anthony Richardson is in line for a big year, as well – obviously. I much prefer him to Stroud because of the fact that he’s mobile - and he has legit overall QB1 upside - and he has the ability straight up break fantasy football this season and be the most valuable fantasy player overall.
Comments