His new HC Jim Harbaugh and OC/playcaller Greg Roman have a history of having an extremely run-heavy approach. They even coached together as HC/OC in San Francisco from 2011-2013; during those three seasons, here’s where they ranked in pass and rush attempts per game:
2011
Pass Attempts/game: 31st
Rush Attempts/game: 3rd
2012
Pass Attempts/game: 31st
Rush Attempts/game: 7th
2013
Pass Attempts/game: 32nd
Rush Attempts/game: 3rd
The QBs during those 49ers years were Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, so we’re not talking QBs who are as talented in the pass game as Justin Herbert. Frank Gore was averaging 272 carries/season as their workhorse in those years, so it clearly wasn’t a system reliant on the QB.
Greg Roman was also Buffalo’s OC with Tyrod Taylor at QB for a little more than a year before he got fired after Week 2 of Year 2. The Bills offense looked pretty similar to those 49ers offenses I mentioned before…
Bills in 2015
Pass Attempts/game: 31st
Rush Attempts/game: 2nd
All while LeSean McCoy averaged almost 19 carries/game and was the overall RB3 during his 8-game healthy stretch that season. Look ahead to Roman’s days in Baltimore, and again, they’re very similar splits.
Ravens 2019
32nd in pass attempts
1st in rush attempts
Ravens 2020
32nd in pass attempts
1st in rush attempts
Ravens 2021 (JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards tore ACLs)
9th in pass attempts
3rd in rush attempts
Ravens 2022
28th in pass attempts
7th in rush attempts
What about Jim Harbaugh? Greg Roman isn’t just seizing full control of the offense, right? Well, here’s where Harbaugh ranked in pass attempts among the 134 FBS schools throughout his Michigan tenure:
2023: 120
2022: 113th
2021: 95th
2020: 33rd
2019: 68th
2018: 103
2017: 98
2016: 94
JJ McCarthy didn’t throw the ball a ton under Harbaugh, but neither did Andrew Luck when he was paired with Harbaugh at Stanford in 2009 and 2010.
The elephant in the room, then, is this - with a dynamic passer like Justin Herbert, you have to think this changes a bit right? I hope so, but these coaches’ histories don’t give us a ton of confidence. One thing is clear, though - target their starting RB. They have a clear hole to fill, and they have options via free agency and the NFL Draft.
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