If I had to choose a QB who has the best shot at becoming the overall fantasy QB1 in 2024, but has never finished as the fantasy QB1 before - I’m going with Anthony Richardson. Super small sample size with Richardson. He appeared in four games, but only finished two of them. So many people will just declare INJURY PRONE! HE HAS TO PROVE HE CAN STAY ON THE FIELD BEFORE I DRAFT HIM. Ok, sure. You do that. But he has overall QB1 upside.
Through the first four weeks of the season - that’s less than 2.5 games played, he averaged 23.1 fantasy points - he was the QB3 during that span in fantasy points/game. 40 yards rushing, 35 yards rushing, and 56 yards rushing. 1 rushing TD, 2 rushing TDs, 1 rushing TD. Anthony Richardson is going to be a menace on the goal line alongside Jonathan Taylor. 10+ rushing TDs is easy money for Richardson if he stays healthy. You can probably add 700 yards rushing on top of that. Just that alone, even if he stinks in the passing game - will net you a weak winning type of QB.
Because among all QBs last year, he averaged the most fantasy points/dropback. Josh Allen was 2nd and Lamar Jackson was 3rd. You know who else used to lead this category? Lamar Jackson in his rookie year before he was the overall QB1 the next season in 2019. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts were Top 4 in fantasy points/dropback the year before they finished as the overall QB1. And Anthony Richardson was #1 in this category last year. And guess what? Besides fantasy points/game, fantasy points/dropback is actually the best indicator of a QB’s fantasy points the following season (credit to Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath on his awesome work there).
I didn’t mention his receiving core. The word is AD Mitchell is looking pretty good in OTAs, he has a bonafide #1 WR in Michael Pittman, he has an underrated slot WR in Josh Downs - he has a very good offensive mind running the show in Shane Steichen - who’s helped develop Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts - he knows how to build an environment around young QBs… teams will have to account for Jonathan Taylor out of the backfield, who by the way, only played two snaps together last year - so the combination of that rushing ability, the scheme that’s being adapted to Richardson admittedly by his head coach, and the weapons around him - that perfect storm could lead Richardson to a league winning finish.
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