After breaking his foot in Week 8, Derrick Henry is back for the playoffs. Whenever any player works hard to come back from an injury, I’m rooting for him, so I hope he kills it today.
Before he got hurt, he already had 219 carries, so he was on pace for 465 carries over the course of a season. He already had a season of 378 and 303 carries. How much more can he take?
He was still effective during those first 8 weeks of this season. Among all RBs with 100+ carries, Henry was 3rd in yards after contact/attempt behind Jonathan Taylor and Nick Chubb. But the wheels have to fall off at some point, right? Do we just keep betting that he’s an anomaly and he’ll keep up his effectiveness as an RB and an elite fantasy RB?
He just turned 28, which isn’t really old for an RB, but it’s where things can start to take a turn… and his accrued mileage doesn’t help his case. He also turned 28 in January, so he’ll be an old 28 during the season. I gotta give you all the context, you know?
According to a study done by the man Mike Tagliere last year, the real drop-off for RBs in terms of Top-5 upside was at 29 years old. Only 1 player out of a 74-player sample was able to finish as a Top-5 RB; side note – who was that player? Spoiler alert: It’s Matt Forte, and my man had 102 catches that year.
He’s still going to be drafted as a high-end RB1 in 2022… the question is, will you take that shot on him once again?
I’d rather draft Christian McCaffrey (another risky early pick), who’ll be 26 in June. And he has the same birthday as my older daughter, so now I have no choice.