Diggs is not the same WR he was a couple of years ago – this was made clear by his struggles down the stretch last season (12.9 PPR points per game from Week 6 on). However, in an offense that proved to scheme WRs open last year, he will thrive even if/as he declines. I have him ranked as a mid WR2 with upside.
C.J. Stroud is the biggest winner of the trade; he has the league’s best WR trio now. He balled as a rookie, and he’s going to ball out even harder as a sophomore. Bobby Slowik staying in Houston as OC will also play a huge factor in Stroud’s second year success. Easy Top 5 fantasy QB.
I know that Diggs has the pedigree of a No. 1 wideout, but I still maintain that Nico is the true 1 in Houston. He’s on the climb compared to Diggs being on the decline, and Tank Dell is coming off a broken fibula. Collins also broke out last year – but the question today is: who should we target?
With Diggs coming in, the targets that were previously tightly distributed between Nico and Tank will now be more widely distributed, unfortunately with Tank likely being the one most negatively affected.
With that being said, this entire offense should be targeted at the right price. Nico will have his big games, Diggs will have his big games - very similar to what we saw last year when Nico and Tank played together. None of these receivers will ever be obsolete as long as they’re healthy and C.J. Stroud is commanding the offense.
Let’s move to Buffalo. Josh Allen is hurting right now. The WR that helped him reach superstar level is gone, and the most effective option available to help replace Diggs is to draft a rookie to come in and be his #1 WR. In other news: Dalton Kincaid is that guy right now.
If the Bills stay put at pick 28, A.D. Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, and Ladd McConkey are all options. Buffalo could also move up for a guy like Brian Thomas, or stick back and go for some of the later round receivers in this deep class using the extra second rounder that picked up in the deal. Among the receivers they have now outside of Kincaid, I’d be betting on Curtis Samuel before Khalil Shakir.
Let’s not get it twisted: I’ve been vocal and a big fan of Shakir since meeting him at the Senior Bowl and watching him land in Buffalo, but this is a great time to sell him in dynasty – take the mid-2nd round rookie pick if you can get it. He could end up as their 4th option after the NFL Draft if the cards end up not being in his favor.
As a final note, one thing that could go understated through all this - James Cook was targeted on 26% of his routes in each of his two playoff games earlier this year. If the Bills get the wrong WR in the draft, Cook could benefit from the misplaced targets created by that situation.
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